After a positive start in 2019, lower prices from June onwards triggered the announcement of cutbacks from major Chinese refined tin producers, which could total up to 20kt in 2019. This is likely to stabilise tin prices by the end of the year. Roskill's near-term outlook is for tin prices to remain relatively flat. Prices are expected to average around the US$22,000/t level, which has been typical of the period since 2012.
London: U.K, Oct. 23, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Month-to-month, the price is likely to rise and fall, the result of opposing trends in key markets such as solders, where increased market volumes in consumer electronics are being partially offset by miniaturisation and new production processes. Combined with cyclical stocking and de-stocking, this results in sharp fluctuations in demand and, consequently significant price volatility. Such effects may disrupt project schedules and affect producers' output targets and capital reinvestments.
Tin demand to increase >2% CAGR to 2029 for most applications
Most tin is used in applications considered to be "mature" - such as solders and tinplate. The solder sector has struggled in 2019, in large part because of market uncertainty linked to the USA-China trade dispute and lower shipments of consumer electronics. However, the fastest growing application for tin over the last few years has been in maintenance-free lead-acid batteries. Additionally, there is a potential demand increase tied to hi-tech applications.
The most significant demand increase over the next decade is expected to come from lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, where there is a large potential application for tin as anode material. Total market demand is expected to exceed 470kt by 2029, most of it accounted for by electronic and industrial solder (>40%), but with a possible substantial rise of the share in Li-ion batteries. It is important to note a degree of uncertainty regarding tin demand in batteries over the longer-term and various key factors should be considered. These include the future regulatory environment, EV penetration rates and the development of different anode technologies. These factors, especially the latter, will have some impact on future tin demand.
Declining high-grade reserves and mine supply will be an increasing bottleneck
Peak mine production from Myanmar, China's main supplier in the last few years, is believed to have been reached in 2017 and mine output is expected to gradually decline to 2029. This is seen as a major source of unbalance in the market, to be partially overcome by production ramp up from new projects such as Bisie (DRC) and Uis (Namibia), along with expansions such as Rentails (Australia) and B2 (Peru).
With total refined tin capacity well over 500ktpy as of 2019, mine supply will be the increasing bottleneck, even when considering new supply, due to strong forecast demand growth. Sufficient supply will be dependent on mine producers ramping up as forecast, new projects coming online, as well as increased secondary tin supply. A mine supply deficit is expected during some of the years of the outlook period, especially the second half, but tin prices are expected to react accordingly so that new projects are incentivised. Use of secondary tin will inevitably have to increase by 30-50% if demand grows as expected.
The 11th edition of the Roskill's Tin: Outlook to 2029 report provides detailed analysis of supply, demand, trade, prices, producers and end use markets.
