Real-Money Traders Price Possible Nominees By Probability
Washington, D.C., May 27, 2020, an online political prediction market exchange that allows its users to trade shares on the most significant political and economic events in the news. On Thursday, May 21, the market saw its largest single day of trade volume ever, clocking in at nearly 300,000 shares. At the moment, Senator Kamala Harris is leading the pack. A candidate's share price can be interpreted as a probability of that outcome occurring.
PredictIt has 100,000 political forecasters invested in "the stock market for politics" and another 600,000+ onlookers visiting the site each month to follow its event probabilities. With new political futures traders joining the site each day, it is no surprise a cottage industry of smart commentary and market analysis has emerged, too, to cover the action, risk, and volatility.
John Phillips, Co-Founder of PredictIt and CEO of Aristotle, sat down with The Political Trade in April to discuss the growth of prediction markets and to announce new features on PredictIt's political futures exchange that will allow traders to use cryptocurrency to fund their investments.
"We're completing the testing of Coinbase integration and that's going to allow traders to use USD coin and that is a dollar-denominated stable coin," announced Phillips. "We've wanted to do that for a while, the testing has been underway but we're testing this with and allowing some of our team and traders to test it and we expect that to be more readily available beginning next month. It should add a new dimension."
The Political Trade is a new podcast launched by the award-winning Luckbox magazine and the first show to focus solely on the art and skill of trading in the political prediction markets of PredictIt from an investment perspective. Host Jeff Joseph joins elite prediction market traders and political insiders offering actionable insights on the week's best trading opportunities.
Recently, Democratic strategist James Carville joined TPT to talk 2020 odds and outlined a tiered trading strategy for the competitive Senate races. Amongst his top-tier states were North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, and Colorado, with Montana, Iowa, and Kansas following in the second tier.
While he's the Chairman of the Ditch Mitch SuperPAC, Carville hesitated to fully embrace purchasing shares against McConnell at the price quoted: $0.16 to $0.18.
"That's going to be tough, but that's a pretty good price," said Carville. "You know I'd take it because you might be able to trade it down the line. But I'd have to have good value in it. Believe me, I'm Chairman of the thing, I'm raising money to beat Mitch McConnell…but I think there's some value there for a while."
Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci also offered TPT his best bets for 2020. Speaking to The Political Trade in March, Scaramucci went over a variety of markets, including his forecast for Biden's vice-presidential pick.
"The biggest risk to the Democrats is the progressive wing of the party defecting from Joe Biden and he's not going to take Bernie Sanders. And so the person who can pick closest to gravitating that wing dam is Elizabeth Warren," said Scaramucci.
He then broke down the election state-by-state, predicting Biden will take Pennsylvania, Michigan (but would buy Republican in Michigan for the price differential) and Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, he said, "If Democrats are under 60 [cents], I'm a buyer."
While a specialized ecosystem of websites, blogs, chat rooms and podcasts has emerged recently to cover the growing prediction market community on the PredictIt exchange,
The Political Trade is a must-listen for any political forecaster, and a prominent voice in the emerging specialized community of websites, blogs, chat rooms, and market commentary that has developed around the PredictIt exchange.
About
PredictIt is a real-money political prediction exchange, a stock market for politics. It was established to research the way markets can forecast future political events and the impact of cognitive biases and misinformation on civic affairs. PredictIt's headquarters is in Washington, D.C. PredictIt is a research project of the Victoria University of Wellington, with support provided byAristotle, a U.S. provider of processing and verification services. PredictIt shares its market data with more than 200 university partners, including professors from West Point, Harvard, Carnegie Mellon, Columbia, Yale, University of Pennsylvania, Dartmouth, Oxford, Princeton, and Duke, among others. The data offers researchers a wealth of information that helps further our understanding of fields of study as diverse as microeconomics, political psychology, computer science, and game theory.
The Political Tradepodcast and the award-winning print and digital Luckbox magazine
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- DVP 2020 Market Screenshot (https://ml.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/7eeb3f2d-f15a-4e28-a905-0c1fddce25de)
