DJ BerGenBio (BGBIO): Initiation - Bemcentinib leading the AXL charge
Edison Investment Research Limited
BerGenBio (BGBIO): Initiation - Bemcentinib leading the AXL charge
17-Nov-2020 / 14:59 GMT/BST
London, UK, 17 November 2020
BerGenBio (BGBIO): Initiation - Bemcentinib leading the AXL charge
BerGenBio (BGBIO) is a pioneer in AXL biology and the development of AXL
inhibitors: selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) bemcentinib and
functional blocking monoclonal antibody tilvestamab. AXL expression is a
negative prognostic marker in most cancers. Its upregulation drives
aggressive disease including drug resistant, immune-evasive and metastatic
cancers, as well as fibrosis and viral infection. AXL signalling is the
essential mediator of EMT and immune suppression. Selective AXL inhibition
can prevent and reverse acquired drug resistance and stop immune
suppression, potentially augmenting the efficacy of other cancer drug
classes. Bemcentinib, an oral once-a-day pill, has demonstrated efficacy in
2L AML and 2L NSCLC, and could be the first selective AXL inhibitor to
market. We value BGBIO at NOK59.1 per share.
We value BerGenBio at NOK5.16bn or NOK59.1 per share based on a
risk-adjusted NPV analysis. The key drivers are bemcentinib in 2L NSCLC
(peak sales $1.2bn, NOK40.7/share) and AML (peak sales $588m, NOK13.3/share)
plus COVID-19 opportunity (NOK5.9/share). We add net cash of NOK 777.9m at
end-Q320 and net off payments due to Rigel (NOK9.8/share). We do not include
tilvestamab in our valuation. Key R&D inflection points in 2020/21 will
determine registration pathways.
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November 17, 2020 09:59 ET (14:59 GMT)
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