Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Bitcoin Group SE
Unternehmen: Bitcoin Group SE
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Kursziel: 80.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Felix Haugg
Continued highly profitable trading platform, despite the difficult market environment. Sustainable dividend and share buybacks planned.
Bitcoin Group SE has completed a record financial year with revenue of EUR 25.39 million (previous year: EUR 15.03 million) and EBITDA of EUR 19.75 million (previous year: EUR 10.55 million). The disproportionate improvement in earnings was reflected in net income of EUR 13.37 million (previous year: EUR 9.52 million). This excellent operating performance is primarily due to the high trading volume of the crypto trading platform Bitcoin.de in the first half of 2022. The crypto markets developed very dynamically at the end of 2020 and until the middle of 2022 and numerous institutional investors and companies invested in this asset class. At the same time, crypto ETFs were launched and El Salvador recognized Bitcoin as a means of payment. Driven by this media focus, new highs were steadily reached. Starting in the winter of 2021, many cryptocurrencies lost value and media attention shifted.
As a result of the very good operating performance, cash and cash equivalents increased to EUR 20.28 million (PY: EUR 12.01 million) and net crypto equity to EUR 132.43 million as of December 31, 2021. Crypto markets have lost about 50% in value since the beginning of the year, in parallel with traditional capital markets. Therefore, we estimate the current net crypto equity holdings to be around EUR 65 million. With a market capitalization of currently around EUR 125 million and cash and cash equivalents of around EUR 85 million, the enterprise value is around EUR 40 million. This means that the company's operating business, which generated net income of EUR 19.75 million in the past fiscal year 2021, is valued at only EUR 40 million. In our view, the company remains significantly undervalued. This view is also shared by the management and a share buyback program and a dividend of EUR 0.10 per share were approved at the Annual General Meeting on July 1, 2022.
The financial markets are currently under pressure due to general concerns about rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, especially the Ukraine conflict, and the possibility of a tighter monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This development is also reflected in the crypto markets. Therefore, our forecasts, as well as guidance, are below the previous year's level. We expect revenues of EUR 14.57 million in the current fiscal year (PY: EUR 25.39 million) and EBITDA of EUR 9.25 million (PY: EUR 19.75 million), followed by EUR 18.94 million in revenues in 2023 and EBITDA of EUR 13.17 million. In our opinion, 2023 should develop much more dynamically with crises overcome by then and a pending Bitcoin halving. A Bitcoin halving means a halving of Bitcoin inflation, which usually leads directly to price increases. The consensus for Bitcoin is still a value of at least EUR 100,000, but the time frames of many estimates differ significantly.
Based on our DCF model, we have determined a fair value of EUR 80.00 (previously EUR 120.00) and assign a BUY rating. The background to the reduced price target is, on the one hand, the lower forecast for the current fiscal year 2022 and, on the other hand, the increased risk-free interest rate.
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Date and time of completion of the study: 11.08.2022 4:00 p.m. - German version: 10.08.2022 (11:00 a.m.) Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 12.08.2022 10:00 a.m. - German version: 11.08.2022 (10:00 a.m.)
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