Endeavour Mining - A strong year ahead

Endeavour Mining's Q123 financial results were materially ahead of both the market and our expectations, on a headline and an underlying basis. Endeavour remains on track to achieve its FY23 production guidance of 1,325-1,425koz (with Q123 production of 301koz) at an AISC of $940-995/oz. Its performance is set to be weighted towards H223 as previously guided, with strong production at Ity and Wahgnion complementing opportunistic development across other assets in Q123. Endeavour continues to enjoy organic growth, and management is aiming to expand current projects (BIOX expansion and Lafigué) and delineate resources further, with a focus on key assets such as Tanda-Iguela (an updated resource estimate is expected in H223). In the light of Q123 results and recent moves in the gold price, we have upgraded our adjusted net attributable earnings forecasts for the full year by 14.6%. Looking ahead, MSCI has announced Endeavour will be added to its Global Standard UK Index on 31 May 2023, indicating this could represent up to 11.0m shares of inflows (roughly 4.5%) of Endeavour's outstanding shares.

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