Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG
Unternehmen: Cenit AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Kursziel: 21.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
1.HY 2023: Revenue growth of 18.3%, EBIT increase of 134.1%; forecasts confirmed; price target raised to EUR21.00 (previously: EUR19.75) due to roll-over effect
After CENIT AG had already made a very good start to the year in the first quarter of 2023 with sales growth of 22.7%, the growth trend was continued with a sales increase of 14.4% achieved in the second quarter. From the perspective of the first half of 2023, this means that revenue has grown by 18.3% to EUR 87.47 million (previous year: EUR 73.91 million). The companies acquired in the last reporting periods contributed significantly to this development. ISR Information Products AG (ISR for short), which was acquired as at 31 May 2022, is expected to have made an inorganic contribution of approximately EUR 9.9 million due to its first full consolidation in the first half of 2023. In addition, mip Management Informations Partner GmbH (mip), which was acquired in January 2023, contributed revenues of EUR 1.36 million. In total, we estimate the M&A-related increase in turnover at EUR 11.23 million. Organically, the company grew by approximately EUR 2.3 million or 3.1%.
The significant increase in EBIT to EUR 2.62 million (previous year: EUR 1.12 million) is partly due to a special income affecting the result. As of 1 June 2023, the subsidiary CENIT Japan K.K. was sold, which triggered a one-off income of EUR 0.87 million. Adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.75 million (previous year: EUR 1.12 million) is still visibly above the previous year's value. In addition to the increase in high-margin consulting and service revenues, the first effects of the Sirius cost-saving programme (savings in personnel, licences, etc.) were noticeable in the first half of the year.
With the publication of the 2023 half-year figures, the CENIT management has confirmed and substantiated the company guidance. Sales revenues of around EUR 180 million and an EBIT of around EUR 9.5 million are expected. Previously, revenues of EUR 175 to 180 million and an EBIT of EUR 9.0 to 9.5 million were expected and thus the upper end of the previously communicated range was targeted.
This concretisation is probably also due in part to the two company acquisitions reported after the reporting date of 30 June 2023. CENIT AG acquired PI Informatik GmbH, a full-service provider in the field of conception and consulting of SAP landscapes, on the first consolidation date of 1 July 2023 (see GBC Research Comment of 11 July 2023). According to our estimates, PI Informatik should contribute a turnover level of approx. EUR 4 to 5 million p.a.. For the current 2023 financial year, approximately half of this will be reflected in revenue due to the consolidation that has only just taken place.
In their half-year report, CENIT AG also reports for the first time on the acquisition of 60% of the Austrian SAP consulting company ACTIVE BUSINESS CONSULT, effective 31 July 2023. The newly acquired company focuses on the energy supply, logistics, industry, trade and public sector sectors and strengthens CENIT AG's SAP PLM and analytics competencies. According to CENIT CEO Peter Schneck, the new company has a sales level of around EUR 4.0 million. Due to the consolidation as of 1 August 2023, this should result in an inorganic sales contribution of slightly more than EUR 1.5 million in the current financial year.
The significant increase in earnings already visible in the first six months of 2023 provides a good basis for the disproportionate earnings growth expected for the full year. In addition, the effects of the Sirius cost-savings programme should have an even stronger impact in Q3 and Q4.
In view of the two company acquisitions and the disproportionate earnings development, the concretisation of the turnover and earnings guidance is understandable. Since our previous forecasts were slightly above the upper forecast range anyway, we are not making any changes to our previous estimates (see Research Comment of 11 July 2023).
During the conference call on the 2023 half-year figures, the CENIT Management Board presented a simulation for achieving the 'CENIT 2025' agenda, according to which a sales level of EUR 300 million is to be reached by 2025. Inorganic growth of almost EUR 10 million is simulated for the current business year. If the inorganic growth contribution of the already acquired companies in the amount of about EUR 4.0 million is deducted, about EUR 6.0 million remain. It is therefore obvious that CENIT AG considers the chance of a further major company acquisition in 2023 to be realistic. In our forecasts, we only include the known inorganic growth. This also explains our 2025 sales estimates of EUR 233.91 million, which show a gap to be filled inorganically up to the target sales of EUR 300 million.
Due to the unchanged forecasts, we also retain our DCF valuation model. However, as the new target price is extended to 31 December 2024 (previously: 31 December 2023), the target price is increased to EUR 21.00 (previously: EUR 19.75). We continue to assign the rating BUY.
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Date (time) of completion: 03/08/2023 (10:50 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 03/08/2023 (12:00 pm)
übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.
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