We are pleased to present our Q1 2024 trading update. Highlights of the report are:
- Resilient operational performance, investment market continues to be quiet
- Completion of disposal of Laanderpoort to ING in January 2024
- Strong balance sheet, with LTV at 30.9% at March 2024
- Vacancy rate 5.2% at March 2024, stable vs year-end
- €20m share buy-back programme started in Q1
CEO COMMENTS
The investment market was extremely quiet in Q1. The lack of available financing, uncertainty over the direction of travel for interest rates, weak economic confidence, institutional capital being overweight the sector, and the ongoing question marks over long term demand for office space continue to significantly impact investor demand.
With respect to the long term demand for offices, this year, 2024, office landlords in The Netherlands are mostly renewing leases originally signed in 2019. These are by and large the last of the 'pre-covid' leases, so we are gradually moving towards a new base line for office demand and occupancy.
At NSI, close to 50% of leases have been renewed or adjusted since the end of covid and we are increasingly sensing that by the end of next year a good part of the right-sizing, lease adjustments and corporate moves will have happened. The reality at NSI is that occupational demand has been rather steady, reflecting the quality of our assets and the efforts of our team, and resulting in a record-low vacancy rate of 5.2%.
Preparing opportunities for a post FBI world
By the end of 2023 we had absorbed a large fall in capital values (mirroring a trend seen in the wider Dutch market), completed the necessary restructuring ahead of the changes to the Dutch FBI regime per 2025 and fully prepared the sale and transfer of Laanderpoort in Q1 2024. Thus, we entered 2024 in a favourable starting position. With the upcoming changes to the FBI regime per 2025 and no new Dutch REIT regime to be realistically expected by January 2025 to replace the FBI (if it happens at all given the current negative political climate for the wider real estate sector), 2024 is a year for NSI to build on its strong balance sheet and solid operational performance and to prepare for the period thereafter.
We will continue to further focus our office portfolio towards Amsterdam, we will continue our efforts to maximise the attractiveness, sustainability credentials and thereby value of our assets, and we will continue to explore value-add initiatives.
These initiatives could well see us further leverage our Leiden Biosciences foothold, and see us explore the redevelopment of some strategically placed office assets in Amsterdam into new residential areas.
Whilst not all of these initiatives appear to be economically viable today, we continue to weigh and explore all options to be ready if and when the economics do make sense. We are also exploring options for partnering to finance new initiatives.
One of the opportunities we are already set to pursue this year is the large scale renovation of Alexanderpoort in Rotterdam, located right next to the second major train station in this city. The upgrade, which is scheduled to start post Summer, is set to turn the asset into a high quality, modern, Paris-proof HNK with all the necessary amenities and services. The investment, at a cost of ca € 19.5 mln, is expected to generate a net yield on incremental cost of in excess of 10%.
Outlook for 2024
The €20m share buyback programme is now underway. In Q1 a total of 124,829 shares (ca. 12% of the programme) have been repurchased. In the current market we see this as an attractive way to allocate capital.
With an LTV of 30.9% and no debt maturities before February 2026, the balance sheet is in good shape, which remains a great asset at this time of elevated uncertainty in wider markets.
Whilst Q1 EPRA EPS at € 0.35 per share is down year-on-year due to higher interest costs, timing of maintenance and taxes, we confirm our post-tax EPRA EPS guidance of € 1.85-2.00 for the full year 2024 (constant portfolio basis), helped by 4.8% like-for-like GRI growth in Q1.
Operationally, the vacancy, the upcoming lease expiries and cost control continue to receive our full attention. Whilst the like-for-like vacancy is up 0.6% in Q1, we see continued demand for smaller floor plates, which should keep the vacancy in check.
The team is excited and preparing for the opportunities ahead and I am personally looking forward to the start of our new CFO Elke Snijder per 1 May to continue to further shape the business in the best interest of our shareholders.
Bernd Stahli
Download:
https://nsi.nl/news/download/d20f6d15-c86f-428f-8d6b-e4d85357f42b/nsiq12024.pdf
- Resilient operational performance, investment market continues to be quiet
- Completion of disposal of Laanderpoort to ING in January 2024
- Strong balance sheet, with LTV at 30.9% at March 2024
- Vacancy rate 5.2% at March 2024, stable vs year-end
- €20m share buy-back programme started in Q1
CEO COMMENTS
The investment market was extremely quiet in Q1. The lack of available financing, uncertainty over the direction of travel for interest rates, weak economic confidence, institutional capital being overweight the sector, and the ongoing question marks over long term demand for office space continue to significantly impact investor demand.
With respect to the long term demand for offices, this year, 2024, office landlords in The Netherlands are mostly renewing leases originally signed in 2019. These are by and large the last of the 'pre-covid' leases, so we are gradually moving towards a new base line for office demand and occupancy.
At NSI, close to 50% of leases have been renewed or adjusted since the end of covid and we are increasingly sensing that by the end of next year a good part of the right-sizing, lease adjustments and corporate moves will have happened. The reality at NSI is that occupational demand has been rather steady, reflecting the quality of our assets and the efforts of our team, and resulting in a record-low vacancy rate of 5.2%.
Preparing opportunities for a post FBI world
By the end of 2023 we had absorbed a large fall in capital values (mirroring a trend seen in the wider Dutch market), completed the necessary restructuring ahead of the changes to the Dutch FBI regime per 2025 and fully prepared the sale and transfer of Laanderpoort in Q1 2024. Thus, we entered 2024 in a favourable starting position. With the upcoming changes to the FBI regime per 2025 and no new Dutch REIT regime to be realistically expected by January 2025 to replace the FBI (if it happens at all given the current negative political climate for the wider real estate sector), 2024 is a year for NSI to build on its strong balance sheet and solid operational performance and to prepare for the period thereafter.
We will continue to further focus our office portfolio towards Amsterdam, we will continue our efforts to maximise the attractiveness, sustainability credentials and thereby value of our assets, and we will continue to explore value-add initiatives.
These initiatives could well see us further leverage our Leiden Biosciences foothold, and see us explore the redevelopment of some strategically placed office assets in Amsterdam into new residential areas.
Whilst not all of these initiatives appear to be economically viable today, we continue to weigh and explore all options to be ready if and when the economics do make sense. We are also exploring options for partnering to finance new initiatives.
One of the opportunities we are already set to pursue this year is the large scale renovation of Alexanderpoort in Rotterdam, located right next to the second major train station in this city. The upgrade, which is scheduled to start post Summer, is set to turn the asset into a high quality, modern, Paris-proof HNK with all the necessary amenities and services. The investment, at a cost of ca € 19.5 mln, is expected to generate a net yield on incremental cost of in excess of 10%.
Outlook for 2024
The €20m share buyback programme is now underway. In Q1 a total of 124,829 shares (ca. 12% of the programme) have been repurchased. In the current market we see this as an attractive way to allocate capital.
With an LTV of 30.9% and no debt maturities before February 2026, the balance sheet is in good shape, which remains a great asset at this time of elevated uncertainty in wider markets.
Whilst Q1 EPRA EPS at € 0.35 per share is down year-on-year due to higher interest costs, timing of maintenance and taxes, we confirm our post-tax EPRA EPS guidance of € 1.85-2.00 for the full year 2024 (constant portfolio basis), helped by 4.8% like-for-like GRI growth in Q1.
Operationally, the vacancy, the upcoming lease expiries and cost control continue to receive our full attention. Whilst the like-for-like vacancy is up 0.6% in Q1, we see continued demand for smaller floor plates, which should keep the vacancy in check.
The team is excited and preparing for the opportunities ahead and I am personally looking forward to the start of our new CFO Elke Snijder per 1 May to continue to further shape the business in the best interest of our shareholders.
Bernd Stahli
Download:
https://nsi.nl/news/download/d20f6d15-c86f-428f-8d6b-e4d85357f42b/nsiq12024.pdf
