VEON - 2025 - the year of the catalyst

VEON's Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a 44% beat at the EPS level. VEON continues to aggressively expand its digital solutions businesses, which grew 63% in 2024 as it executes its strategy to become 'a digital services company with a telecoms licence'. We upgrade our adjusted EPS estimates by 7.5% for FY25 and 10.4% for FY26. With no change to our core DCF assumptions, our new fair value is US$60.4/share, from US$56.5. Our estimates are below guidance, suggesting potential for further upside if VEON executes to plan. Potential catalysts include stabilisation in Bangladesh, the planned IPO of VEON's Kyivstar business in H225 and the US$35m buyback announced at the FY24 results.

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