First-party fraud identified as potential risk as financial pressures impact affordability
The latest analysis of UK card payments from global analytics software leader FICO shows that spending fell in January and rose in February, as per usual seasonal patterns. However, January saw increases in missed payments across one, two and three months. In February there was evidence of consumers prioritising card payments, with decreases in cardholders missing one and two payments. An area of concern for credit managers is the persistent rise in customers missing three payments.
In discussions with leading financial institutions, FICO has also identified a growing trend in first-party fraud. This is where a cardholder intentionally makes a large purchase up to their credit limit, knowing that the payment they make will bounce. During the period that is required for the payment to clear, available credit may reopen on the card. This allows fraudsters to make additional purchases and increase the balance even further. By the time the payment is returned, and an insufficient funds error is received, the damage has been done. FICO is working with a number of card issuers to develop strategies where payments identified as high risk are held for a number of days until the payment clears. This helps to reduce these delinquent balances that end up going to charge-off.
Highlights
- Average credit card spending fell by 11% month-on-month in January (£765) but rose by 3% in February to £790
- January average balances fell by 0.6% month-on-month but rose by 0.5% in February, with the higher cost of living evident in a year-on-year increase of 5%
- By February the percentage of overall balance paid had dropped by more than 4% year-on-year to 35%
- The average balance of one missed payment increased in January and February, to £2,345 which equates to a 4% increase year on year
- The average balance that was two or three payments overdue also increased in February by 3% and 1.3%, to an average balance of £2,805 and £3,195, respectively
- The percentage of customers using credit cards to take out cash continued to decrease, down 3.8% in January and 3.5% in February, to 8.6% on the previous year, to 3%.
Key Trend Indicators UK Cards January 2025 | |||
Metric | Amount | Month-on-Month Change | Year-on-Year Change |
Average UK Credit Card Spend | £765 | -10.9% | -1.0% |
Average Card Balance | £1,850 | -0.6% | +4.6% |
Percentage of Payments to Balance | 36.33% | +1.3% | -3.4% |
Accounts with One Missed Payment | 1.53% | +4.6% | -9.0% |
Accounts with Two Missed Payments | 0.35% | +13.3% | -2.9% |
Accounts with Three Missed Payments | 0.21% | +1.8% | -0.8% |
Average Credit Limit | £5,800 | +0.1% | +2.9% |
Average Overlimit Spend | £90 | -2.2% | +4.7% |
Cash Sales as a of Total Sales | 0.82% | +14.9% | -4.5% |
Source: FICO | |||
Key Trend Indicators UK Cards February 2025 | |||
Metric | Amount | Month-on-Month Change | Year-on-Year Change |
Average UK Credit Card Spend | £790 | +3.1% | +0.5% |
Average Card Balance | £1,860 | +0.5% | +5.0% |
Percentage of Payments to Balance | 34.87% | -4.0% | -4.4% |
Accounts with One Missed Payment | 1.35% | -12.0% | -10.2% |
Accounts with Two Missed Payments | 0.33% | -7.6% | +0.1% |
Accounts with Three Missed Payments | 0.21% | +1.4% | -1.2% |
Average Credit Limit | £5,805 | +0.1% | +2.8% |
Average Overlimit Spend | £90 | +1.1% | +5.8% |
Cash Sales as a of Total Sales | 0.82% | +0.3% | -3.9% |
Source: FICO | |||
FICO Comment:
While the spending and balances patterns seen at the start of the year are typical, there was an unexpected increase in the number of customers missing payments in January. Risk managers should review and potentially refresh collections treatment and communication channels to ensure that customers facing affordability issues during the continuing uncertain economic climate are properly supported.
Further evidence of the continued pressure on personal finances is the percentage of overall balance paid, which has been trending down in recent years, especially among customers who have had their cards less than one year. For this segment, collections treatment and communication channels may need to be reviewed to ensure customers struggling with affordability receive the appropriate pre-delinquent support and are on the right credit product to meet their needs.
These card performance figures are part of the data shared with subscribers of the FICO® Benchmark Reporting Service. The data sample comes from client reports generated by the FICO TRIAD Customer Manager solution in use by some 80% of UK card issuers. For more information on these trends, contact FICO.
About FICO
FICO (NYSE: FICO) powers decisions that help people and businesses around the world prosper. Founded in 1956, the company is a pioneer in the use of predictive analytics and data science to improve operational decisions. FICO holds more than 200 US and foreign patents on technologies that increase profitability, customer satisfaction and growth for businesses in financial services, insurance, telecommunications, health care, retail and many other industries. Using FICO solutions, businesses in more than 80 countries do everything from protecting 4 billion payment cards from fraud, to improving financial inclusion, to increasing supply chain resiliency. The FICO® Score, used by 90% of top US lenders, is the standard measure of consumer credit risk in the US and has been made available in over 40 other countries, improving risk management, credit access and transparency. Learn more at www.fico.com.
FICO and TRIAD are registered trademarks of Fair Isaac Corporation in the United States and other countries.
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Contacts:
For further press information please contact:
FICO UK PR Team
Wendy Harrison/Matthew Enderby
ficoteam@harrisonsadler.com
0208 977 9132
