Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
19.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 19.05.2025
Target price: EUR 5.20
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Superb run secures UCL qualification; chg.
Thanks to a 3-0 home victory on Saturday, BVB has secured qualification for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) on the last matchday of the season.
From the perspective of before this matchday, that was certainly not a surprise. In March, however, BVB were still 10 points behind 4th place after a 2-0 defeat in Leipzig, leading us to put only a 10% likelihood on the club's UCL hopes. However, following a superb winning streak with 7 victories out of the last 8 Bundesliga matches, where the only draw was a 2-2 at Bayern, BVB jumped from 11th to 4th place.
Why is this so important? The UCL is the most competitive club competition in the world and therefore UEFA's flagship event, leading to correspondingly high prize money. In fact, while the overall prize money in the UCL is EUR 2.44bn, it is only EUR 565 in the UEFA Europa League (UEL) and only EUR 285m in the UEFA Conference League (UECL). According to our calculations and forecasts, BVB will be able to achieve EUR 78m in UCL related TV marketing sales next season. In contrast, this figures would have been at EUR 23m in the UEL and at EUR 14m in the UECL and of course at EUR 0 when failing entirely to qualify for a European competition.
UCL qualification was thus crucial for the club and does now open up significant opportunities on the transfer market in our view. Combined with potential departures of talented players like Jamie Gittens (EUR 50m market value) or Nico Schlotterbeck (EUR 40m), the club will receive an estimated $ 51m from participating in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, which takes place in the US during the summer.
In our view, management should be able to built a strong team around the already strong foundation of the squad with these funds, making us confident that in contrast to this season BVB will easily qualify for UCL in the coming season. A first step here was the permanent signing of defender Daniel Svensson, who has been on loan at the club since January. In 11 Bundesliga matches, he was able to produce solid stats including 2 assists and 1 goal.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.20 PT based on DCF.
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