Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Q2 in line with estimates, guidance confirmed and in reach Q2 sales arrived as expected flat yoy at € 228m (eNuW: € 230m), as a mix of manifold revenue drivers: Wealth declined by 4% yoy to € 120m (eNuW: € 117m) due to lower interest income and the much lower performance fees. On an underlying level (sales ex performance fees), the Wealth competence field could actually grow sales by 3.5% yoy. Life & Health grew modestly by 1% yoy to € 66m (eNuW: € 69m) on the back of a strong health insurance business (+8% yoy). Moreover, P&C showed a strong growth of 9% yoy to € 37m (eNuW: € 35m). As already announced per ad-hoc on 31st July, Q2 EBIT came in at € 4.9m with a 2.1% margin (-2.9 pp yoy) in a seasonally weak quarter. The main reason behind this development is a mix of many moving parts:
Nevertheless, MLP confirmed its FY'25 EBIT guidance of € 100-110m. Although H2'25 now requires an EBIT of € 57-67m (vs. H2'24 of € 46m EBIT incl. a € 16m EBIT contribution from performance fees), in order to reach the guidance, management feels confident to achieve it. On the back of continuous momentum in health insurance, non-life insurance as well as RE brokerage (which comed with operating leverage and higher brokerage margins) and with some € 4m in H2 performance fees baked in, we expect H2 EBIT of € 59m, in line with the guidance. Admittedly, the target now seems at risk if the RE development segment Deutschland.Immobilien does not develop as planned in H2. However, Q3'24 saw a strong performance fee contribution from unobservable (and unpredictable) PE fund carries of € 17m. These might also be in the cards for Q3'25 (at a lower or maybe similar magnitude) and would thus support reaching the guidance, but that remains speculative for now. All in all, the release should not have come as a surprise. Consequently, we regard the negative share price reaction yesterday as overdone and on the contrary recommend to BUY, as the shares remain attractively valued (only 6.6x FY'25e EBIT). As our estimates remain unchanged, we also maintain our PT of € 13.00, based on SOTP and FCFY'25e. You can download the research here: mlp-se-2025-08-15-update-en-ecdb2 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2184370 15.08.2025 CET/CEST
