Marley Spoon cut its FY25 guidance, now projecting sales of € 250-270m, down from "a single-digit % yoy decline" compared to the FY24 figure of € 308m (eNuW old: € 303m). The reasons behind that are multifaceted, including a weaker USD, a faster than initially expected deconsolidation of the sold Chefgood but also weaker demand for its products during the current holiday season. We expect the US to have continued to show signs of stabilizing subscription numbers coupled with a further improving quality while Europe is likely to have remained behind expectations.
On the flip side, the company lifted its forecasted contribution margin to 36-37.5%, up from around 34.5% last year (old guidance: improvement by >100bps, eNuW old: 35.8%) indicating notably improved cost control and pricing power but also positive implications from the Chefgood divestment (better product mix).
Operating EBITDA is expected to remain positive, though growth expectations have been scaled back to 30-50% yoy, down from prior projections of 70-80%, a prudent adjustment in anticipation of a lower fix cost coverage due to the revenue short-fall.
Marley Spoon transformation should remain largely on track. With the launch of its single brand strategy, which includes the discontinuation of its Dinnerly brand in Europe and the expected launch of its ready-to-eat (RTE) offering in Europe, management is re-shaping the company allowing for slimmer processes and synergies in marketing. Mind you, during the mid-term, management highlighted plans to offer additional food and nutrition solutions (e.g. juice packs, healthy snacks, special diet meals) under the Marley Spoon brand, ultimately increasing the value proposition for customers on the platform.
Refinancing remains number one priority. With more than € 70m of debt, only little free cash flow generation and almost € 12m of annual interest obligations, management is in dire need of finding a suitable long-term solutions with its debtors. As the outcome will be crucial for upcoming operational decisions, we would expect a somewhat slower transformation in order to secure liquidity for the time being. We expect the company to release an update with the schedule H1 report publication in September.
BUY with a cut PT of € 1.00 (old: € 2.70) based on DCF.
ISIN: LU2380748603
