Original-Research: LAIQON AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to LAIQON AG
Soft H1, but large acquisition to drive earnings Despite 8% yoy higher AuM, reported H1 sales came in muted and declined by 4% yoy to € 14.2m mainly due to the planned phase-out of sold business units (€ -0.4m sales effect). On the other hand, a relatively lower sales commission (material expense ratio -3.8pp yoy to 12.7% of sales) as well as a positive effect stemming from a € 2.8m government research grant, led to an improved reported EBITDA of € -0.8m (vs. € -2.9m in H1'24). However, excluding the positive effect from the research grant as well as € 0.2m negative one-off from the MainFirst acquisition, H1'25 underlying EBITDA would have been at € -3.4m, stemming from the negative operating leverage of the sales decline. Large and profitable AuM acquisition to foster profitable turn-around: Having acquired € 2.5bn AuM from MainFirst (including key personnel) at the start of July'25, the deal should yield some € 14m in additional, margin accretive revenues (on FY basis; implying a 0.56% sales margin on AuM vs. 0.37% in the Asset Management segment) and is to be financed by own cash-flows in the form of future earn-out payments as well as the issuance of a new € 10m corporate bond 25/30 (5.5% interest rate). In an as-if scenario (assuming the acquisition as of Jan 1st), H1'25 sales would have been at € 24.9m and EBITDA at € 1.4m (i.e. € 7.3m sales with a 30% EBITDA margin from MainFirst assets in H1), highlighting the deal's margin accretion to the group. Consequently, we expect a strong development in H2 with sales expanding by 55% yoy to € 25m (thereof 12% yoy organically and 43% yoy inorganically) as well as a positive EBITDA of € 3m implying a 45% incremental margin on the back of the profitable acquisition and operating leverage. Detailed new guidance and mid-term targets issued: with currently € 9.8bn AuM (31.08.2025, incl. the acquisition), LAIQON projects AuM to further grow to € 10-11.5bn by Y/E'25e and to more than € 15bn by Y/E'28e (14% CAGR H1'25-FY'28e) based on a strong and growing full-service offering attracting new clients and international expansion (first foothold in Belgium already established). Especially the launch of a new AI-managed, active ETF with a so far undisclosed partner in the Top 5 (Blackrock, DWS, Vanguard, Amundi and State Street) is projected for Dec'25e and should tap the large retail market. On top, LAIQON is currently in talks with another Asset Manager (similar to Union Investment) for its white-label solution "Wertanlage". Additionally, opportunistic acquisitions might come on top, but are not reflected in the guidance. This should translate into € 53-58m sales with a 8-14% EBITDA margin in FY'26e (eNuW: € 54m, 11% margin) and to more than € 82m sales with a 33% EBITDA margin by FY'28, both including performance fees. All in all, LAIQON is nearing the path for sustainable profitability after years of investments. With the prospect of a dividend capability as of FY'26e, the shares remain undervalued in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our DCF-based PT to € 11.00 (old. € 7.40), following the incorporation of MainFirst assets into our model. You can download the research here: laiqon-ag-2025-09-08-previewreview-en-f0f42 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2194032 08.09.2025 CET/CEST
