Topic: On Wednesday, Wizz Air announced the gradual closure of operations at Vienna Airport (VIE). Moreover, FWAG released August traffic figures yesterday. In detail:
Following a strategic review, Wizz Air has decided to gradually discontinue its base and operations at VIE. Out of the five A321neo aircrafts stationed at VIE, two aircrafts and routes (London & Bilbao) will be taken out of operation on October 26th 2025. The remaining three aircrafts and routes will be taken out of operation as of March 15th 2026. Wizz Air states that the risen airport charges as well as aviation taxes at VIE are not compatible with the ultra-low-cost business model anymore. Currently, Wizz Air is VIE's third largest customer (after Austrian and Ryanair) and counts c. 2m passengers annually (6% market share).
Each ticket price contains € 12 Austrian aviation tax (or € 35 for flights shorter than 350km) imposed by the state and c. € 14.50 airport charges (eNuW, calculation based on H1'25 figures) imposed by FWAG. Nevertheless, a total of € 26.50 of charges play a large role in the ultra-low-cost business model, where ticket prices usually range between € 50-150.
Mind you, FWAG does not control the airport charges themselves, but they are legally stipulated. From 2020 until 2025, the statutory formula was suspended due to COVID, but as of 2026, the changes in airport charges will be resumed with the formula (price increase in % = -0.35 x PAX growth + inflation). Consequently, airport charges at VIE are seen to decline by up to 5% in FY'26e, due to the recent growth in passengers as well as low-inflation.
Against this backdrop, the Wizz Air impact comes at an unfavorable timing, leading to a loss of passengers coupled with lower charges. We expect the loss of routes and capacities to be filled by competitors like Ryanair and Austrian Airlines, but only by a limited extent and not immediately. After all, Vienna remains a strong and desired destination. In sum, we expect a net impact of c. 1.1m less passengers for FY'26e, leading to a new passenger estimate of 31.7m (eNuW old: 32.8m), implying a passenger decline of 1% yoy for FY'26e at VIE.
To put this into perspective, FY'26e is seen as a small dent in FWAG's structural growth story. FY'27e should experience growth again due to the catch-up effects described above and thanks to the south terminal expansion (adding large areas of shopping & restaurants and thus higher non-aviation sales), which is currently in construction.
Moreover, August traffic figures for the important, seasonally busiest month of the year were carried by catch-up effects at VIE, following the twelve-day war (see update from 17th July). In sum, group passengers rose by 3.7% yoy to 4.61m (eNuW: 4.56m).
Against this backdrop, we reflect the Wizz Air impact in our estimates and derive a new PT of € 58.00 (old: € 60.00), based on DCF, supporting our HOLD recommendation.
