Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to UmweltBank AG
Operational progress, strengthened capital base and sustained positive earnings performance Due to the significant increase in earnings, pre-tax profit also rose sharply to €9.13 million (previous year: €3.60 million). Although operating costs increased in the context of transformation and digitalisation, ongoing efficiency programmes also led to a disproportionately low increase in costs. However, the development of retail customer deposits and the number of customers was slightly below our expectations. In the third quarter, customer deposits actually declined slightly to €3,877 million (30 June 2025: €3,926 million), while the number of customers remained virtually unchanged. This is attributable to the introduction of the current account, which has not yet met expectations. Nevertheless, UmweltBank's management is sticking to its targets of increasing private customer deposits to around €4.3 billion by the end of 2025. To achieve this, deposit growth of around €400 million must be achieved in the fourth quarter. In addition to stronger growth from the introduction of the current account, a new overnight deposit campaign (guaranteed interest rate of 3.0% for three months) is expected to contribute to this. Corporate banking also fell short of expectations. In the first nine months, UmweltBank AG deliberately acted in a capital-conserving manner, achieving gross new lending of around €73 million (previous year: €115 million). Following the capital increase carried out in September 2025, the company now has a higher capital buffer. It plans to see a significant upturn in new lending business in the fourth quarter of 2025 and expects gross new lending business for the year as a whole to be in the range of €200 million to €250 million (previously: €250 million to €350 million). UmweltBank AG has confirmed all key forecast KPIs in its nine-month report. Net interest income is still expected to be in the range of €60 to €65 million. However, this assumption is based on ambitious plans for growth in customer deposits and new lending volume in the corporate customer segment. In our view, this could prove to be overly ambitious, which is why we are revising our previous forecast slightly. For the current 2025 financial year, we now expect net interest income of €58.45 million (previously: €60.32 million), which is slightly below the company's forecast range. Our estimates for net financial income and net commission and trading income remain unchanged, however. Our estimates for the following years 2026 and 2027 also remain unchanged. From the 2026 financial year onwards, UmweltBank AG should benefit from the higher capital buffer following the capital increase and be able to expand its lending business more strongly. There are also plans to resume lending to private customers. Finally, a more targeted customer approach should continue the expansion of customer deposits expected for the fourth quarter of 2025. The reduction in the forecast for net interest income is also reflected in a decrease in the expected pre-tax profit to €8.40 million (previously: €9.37 million) and in the net profit for the year to €5.71 million (previously: €6.37 million). The only slight reduction in the forecasts for the current 2025 financial year has only a marginal impact on Umweltbank's target price determined using the residual income model, which we are reducing slightly to €9.40 (previously: €9.50). We continue to assign a 'BUY' rating. You can download the research here: 20251103_UmweltBank_Comment_engl Contact for questions: GBC AG Halderstraße 27 86150 Augsburg 0821 / 241133 0 research@gbc-ag.de ++++++++++++++++ Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung +++++++++++++++ Date (time) Completion: 03.11.2025 (8:14 am) Date (time) first transmission: 03.11.2025 (14:00 am) The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
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