Topic: Following preliminary results (sales and EBITDA) in October, Astor released final Q3 results yesterday. Here are our key highlights:
Order intake has risen to new highs. Driven by large orders reported in Q3 (such as Airsafe: SEK 68m, Oscilion: SEK 15m) but also by growing demand across all subsidiaries, order intake more than quintupled to SEK 144m (9M: SEK 322m, +171% yoy), which implies a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.8x (9M: 1.3x). Given relatively short average lead times across the group, out of the SEK 368m current order backlog, SEK 149m are due for delivery in Q4 2025, providing excellent visibility into the upcoming quarter (eNuW: SEK 157m sales).
Strong organic sales growth despite seasonal weakness. Q3 revenues increased by 22% organically, which we partly attribute to first deliveries of Oscilion's drone jammer "Astor Eclipse" but also higher outputs at the composite manufacturer Marstrom. Given past M&A, sales increased by a total of 78% yoy to SEK 79m. On a segmental level (only comparable on a 9M basis), Astor TECH showed a 400% yoy sales jump to SEK 59m, whereas Astor INDUSTRY grew sales by 40% yoy to SEK 168m. The new, and still small, segment Astor PROTECT recorded revenues of SEK 5.1m, containing mostly revenues of AirSafe for now.
Elevated profitability picture needs clarification. Q3 EBITDA jumped from SEK -3.9m last year to SEK 15.9m with a staggering 20.2% EBITDA margin (+29.1pp yoy), which we regard to be a mix of several drivers: (1) the high margin acquisition of Scandiflash in Q4'24 had a margin accretive effect, (2) the better scale drastically improved the holding expense coverage (SEK 4.8m in Q3), but more importantly (3) a seasonal, positive swing in own work capitalized (SEK 9.7m, up 1149% yoy) as well as increase/decrease in unfinished goods and WIP (SEK 13.5m), positively affecting the margin. Especially the Astor TECH segment benefitted from this effect, showing a 40.7% EBITDA margin in Q3 (vs. 23.6% in H1). However, given the strong sell down of WIP as well as lower capitalization of own work expected for the remainder of the year, a margin dragging reversal of this effect should come in Q4 (eNuW).
Cash generation muted due to seasonality. Hand in hand with the effect mentioned above, working capital was also impacted, as it seasonally peaked now in preparation for the sell-down in Q4. Therefore, CFO came in at SEK -11.1m (9M: SEK 2.5m), thanks to the SEK -25.6m WC effect (9M: - 23.1m), but we also expect a positive swing back in Q4.
In sum, Astor remains in full swing. The recently closed AMMUNITY acquisitions should not only indicate a record Q4 ahead, it also lifts the group from a mostly national player to an internationally recognized Nordic defence group. Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of SEK 57, based on DCF.
ISIN: SE0019175274