Yesterday, tonies released a very strong Q3 trading statement, beating our regional and category topline estimates. In detail:
Group sales grew by 52% yoy to € 145m (eNuW: € 124m). Following the atypical, modest growth visible in Q2 (+16% yoy vs. 33% in FY24 and 24% in Q1 '25), the company has shown a strong momentum recovery. Although we expected this recovery (eNuW: 30% yoy growth in Q3), the extent came as a positive surprise.
TB2 launch carried strong phase-in effects. In September, tonies launched the first iteration of its core product, called the Toniebox 2 (TB2). Before that, Q2 saw a 12% yoy decline in sales from Tonieboxes, as retailers stopped ordering the TB1 and waited until Q3 to fill inventories with the new TB2. At that time, the decline surprised the market, as the TB2 launch was communicated only after Q2 results. This led to strong phase-in effects and Toniebox sales increased by a staggering 59% yoy to € 40m (eNuW: € 35m). Moreover, management also highlighted that a substantial part of the strong performance stems from upgrades, where existing TB1 owners purchased the new TB2. Mind you, the launch of TB2 (for end customers) started on Sept. 15, 2025 in DACH, whereas US and ROW roll-out began on 5th October and thus in Q4.
Revenue growth in DACH climbed back to old levels, with sales growing by 45% yoy to € 61m (eNuW: € 54m), mostly due to the phase-in effects mentioned above. North America also experienced a strong sales growth of 47% yoy to € 54m (eNuW: € 45m), followed by RoW, which delivered a remarkable 83% yoy growth to € 30m (eNuW: € 28m).
Figurines grew driven by TB2 and new launches. Given that Tonies figurines are usually bought in parallel to a Toniebox purchase, Tonies figurines sales surged 48% yoy to € 99m (eNuW: € 85m), also carried by robust uptake of recent releases, including My First Tonies, Tonieplay, and the US best-seller Ms. Rachel Tonie. Mind you, Tonies figurines make up ~70% of sales and carry structurally higher margins than the boxes.
tonies set to reach guidance if a strong Q4 follows. Management expects another record quarter in Q4, which typically makes up ~50% of FY revenues. Based on our Q4 estimate of € 276m (+16% yoy), we expect FY '25 sales of € 598m, slightly below the "more than € 600m sales" guidance target. Firstly, we factor in some EUR/USD FX-headwinds (guidance is in constant currency) and secondly expect some demand to have pre-shifted into Q3, which would usually materialize in Q4 during the holiday season. Nevertheless, we regard the TB2 as a very potent product and would not rule out an estimate beat on the upcoming Christmas season.
Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case, supported by the high revenue potential stemming from the new product family, and the proven profitability of tonies' business model, which should increase as the company scales internationally. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY rating, and keep our PT unchanged at € 11.00, based on DCF.
ISIN: LU2333563281