Original-Research: The Platform Group AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to The Platform Group AG
On Wednesday, TPG announced its new long-term outlook Vision 2030, targeting improving KPIs, topline growth, and margin expansions. In detail: Ambitious goals set for both GMV and sales. Management's Vision 2030 targets imply a ~30% CAGR in GMV and a 33% CAGR in sales over 2025-2030, assuming that TPG achieves both its FY '25 and mid-term targets by FY'26. Although it is true that both GMV and sales grew at a significantly higher rate for the 2021-2025 period (GMV: 54% CAGR, Sales: 40% CAGR), and Vision 2030 targets imply a lower growth rate going forward, these estimates blend both organic and inorganic growth, with no visibility for the latter going forward. In addition, the 2021-2025 period represented the platform's initial build-out, meaning sales grew from a significantly lower base. Our estimates indicate a 15% CAGR for GMV, and a 13% CAGR for sales, which reflect a conservative stance and also do not include any future M&A. EBITDA margin expansion as a priority, AI should play a key role. From a profitability standpoint, TPG presented a series of initiatives designed to lift adj. EBITDA margin to double digits by 2030, or sooner. The plan focuses on the following key areas: (1) AI cost-reduction program. During yesterday's presentation call, the CEO flagged the AI cost-reduction program as the key margin expansion lever. While TPG did not provide a financial impact target, its biggest effect should be seen on headcount as well as reducing complexity and double cost. In line with this, we estimate an underproportionate increase in headcount growth as well as decreasing ratio at other OPEX. On the other hand, we feel confident with our stable distribution and marketing expense ratios for now. (2) Gross margin expansion measures. Management announced a set of gross margin expansion initiatives, which include delisting low-price articles, offering less discounts, and increasing take rates across more than 70% of its platforms. Although these measures seem sensible in our view, we conservatively estimate a small gross margin improvement for now (from 36.5% in 2025 to 36.8% in 2030), until these measures bear fruit. (3) Divestiture of small-contributors. The company also announced the beginning of small, low-contributor subsidiaries divestitures starting in Q4. This marks a significant shift on the company's approach, as its strategy has been only focused on buy and hold. Following the same principle for future M&A activity, we have decided to leave future divestitures outside our estimates until they are announced. All in all, although our estimates are below the GMV and sales targets for conservative reasons, our profitability estimates already reach double digits in 2028e (eNuW: 10%). Against this backdrop, TPG is undervalued, as the stock continues to trade at low multiples. Following tangible progress towards the Vision 2030, potential estimate upgrades could trigger further upside. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY rating and maintain our PT of € 21.00, based on DCF. You can download the research here: theplatformgroupag20251114updateen0e0d6 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2230028 14.11.2025 CET/CEST
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