Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Q3 review: PW, but healthy and de-risked core business Having reduced its FY'25 EBIT guidance last week, yesterday's Q3 figures show a healthy corebusiness. In detail: MLP reduced its FY'25e EBIT guidance last week to € 90-100m (before: € 100-110m) due to a mixof two main reasons: (1) a low-double digit € m amount of performance fees was baked into the original guidance. In Q3,MLP recorded performance fees of only € 2.8m (vs. € 17m in Q3'24) and thus only € 4.8m per 9M(vs. € 26m in 9M'24). As we now expect € 6.5m in FY'25 performance fees (Q4: € 1.7m), thepreviously anticipated figure seems out of reach. (2) the turn around in its real estate development segment Deutschland.Immobilien (DI) was initiallyexpected to provide a € 12m incremental EBIT tailwind in FY'25e, but falls short of expectations. Although Q3 showed a slightly positive € 0.4m EBIT (9M: € -3m), the current development projectsshould not be sufficient to reach a positive EBIT for FY'25e, in our view. Therefore, we now estimatethis segment to deliver € -11m in FY'25e EBIT (prev.: € 0m), which also includes an estimatedgoodwill impairment of € 6m. RE development to be completely abandonded. Following several years of uncertainty and havingexperienced a slowdown in demand after the sharp increase in interest rates in 2022, MLP hasdecided to completely abandon any new RE development projects, where MLP carries thedevelopment risk. Only existing projects will be finished. This decision might imply an additionalimpairment of DI's remaining goodwill of up to € 11.7m in Q4'25e. On the positive side, MLP therefore substantially derisks its business and thus upgraded its FY'28e mid-term EBIT targetrange to € 140-155m (prev. € 140-150m). Q3 shows healthy core business. Total sales arrived 2% lower at € 244m, however, underlyingsales (excl. performance fees) grew by 3% yoy in Q3, showing the intact core business. Moreimportantly, the Q3 EBIT of € 18.4m improved against a high comparable base (Q3'24: € 17.8m witha strong performance fee effect). In turn, this highlights a strong improvement in underlyingprofitability (EBIT ex performance fee effect), which has expanded by 146% yoy to € 16.5m with a4pp yoy higher underlying EBIT margin. Specifically, the largest profitability driver was the bankingbusiness, showing a stellar 29% EBIT margin (+8.7pp yoy), but also supported by marginimprovements at DOMCURA (+9.5pp yoy) and Financial Consulting (+2.9pp yoy). In light of this, the magnitude of MLP's negative share price development following the guidance cut,seems unjustified in our view, especially in light of the solid underlying performance shown in Q3.MLP's core business remains well intact and the company's value should not be derived from REdevelopment and performance fees, in our view. Therefore, the share price drop offers a buyingopportunity, which is why we recommend to BUY with a slightly lower PT of € 12.50 (old: € 13.00),based on FCFY'26e. You can download the research here: 251114mlp For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2230108 14.11.2025 CET/CEST
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