INDUS surprised investors with a small note in Q3 2025 results, hinting that further M&A activities in Q4 2025 could be possible after fulfilling expectations in terms of deal count earlier in the year. Looking ahead, accelerating deal activity should put INDUS on track to reach its € 500m spending target until the end of 2030.
Q4 2025 deal outlook. Given the implications of the note and the time remaining in the year, it is likely that the company already had several deals in pipeline and was confident about signing at least one before the end of Q4, in our view. Looking at the 9m financial statements we believe at least € 30-35m to be available for possible additional deals (so far € 53m were spend ytd.). 9m cash stood at roughly € 200m with op. cash flow of € 80m.
Typical deal behavior for the company includes buying a stake in a target first and acquiring the residual equity over time. Yet, full immediate consolidation is probable given past deal history. Deal sizes remain uncertain as the company may have an appetite for larger deals in order to drive strategic growth but has completed small deals in the past as well.
Possible focus areas are likely to stretch across segments. In Engineering, adding to their automation technology could be of interest, with recent studies showing CAGR prospects of 10-11% until 2030 of the respective niche. Currently low order numbers (as indicated by VDMA mechanical engineering numbers) and price competition may temporarily weigh on the sector's valuations. As a strategic investor, INDUS could take advantage of these developments. In Materials Solutions, BETEK's heavy weight and strong raw material dependency, which was a significant detractor during 9m 2025, may lead the company to seek additional diversification i.e. in synthetic and composite materials, for which research studies indicate 7-8% CAGR until 2030. For the Infrastructure segment, energy supply infrastructure construction with a projected CAGR of 7-8% to 2030 could be an interesting addition to their exposure in Hauff Technik.
2026 Outlook. Next year, INDUS looks set to spend up to € 100m (eNuW), which would be in line with the company's spending targets announced at its CMD last year. Mind you, INDUS plans to spend a total of € 500m until the end of 2030 on M&A. With an average acquisition multiple of 7-7.5x EV/EBITA, the company could add at least € 70m of EBITA during the next five years (vs FY24).
Overall, INDUS looks well positioned to deliver on its role as consolidator of the German Mittelstand, grounded in a long track-record of sustainably generating returns. With the pledged € 500bn of infrastructure spending still in the cards, currently one of the historically best period for a buy-and-build strategy (temporarily lower performance coupled with an increasing need for succession solutions) and a solid operational performance despite challenging end markets, INDUS remains a BUY with an unchanged € 34 PT based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0006200108