FY26 is increasingly shaping up as the real inflection point for 123f, yet near-term demand is weakening as customers delay enrollment amid uncertainty around the timing and impact of the planned driving licence reform. While the Ministry of Transport aims to make the process cheaper and more digital, no concrete implementation date has been set and cost reductions may take until FY27 to materialize (eNuW), according to industry feedback. Meanwhile, many prospective learners are postponing training in hopes of lower fees, contributing to a noticeable drop in new registrations reported by driving schools and industry groups. This creates a temporary demand vacuum with weakening volumes today while fixed costs remain largely unchanged.
123f is likely less exposed than smaller peers thanks to its strong brand presence, marketing intensity and superior digital onboarding funnel. However, even the market leader cannot fully escape a structural slowdown. As a result, we reset our FY25e-27e estimates to reflect a slower volume recovery and delayed operating leverage.
At the same time, simulator monetization is seen to ramp slower than anticipated. Larger investment decisions remain dependent on regulatory clarity and practical implementation details, delaying order conversions and pushing meaningful segment contribution further into FY26/27. This dynamic was already visible in FY25 and now extends into our forward assumptions. Importantly, this is a timing issue, not a structural deterioration of demand. Once the reform is enacted, we expect a catch-up effect driven by lower price points, higher convenience and expanded catchment areas.
However, the cost base was built for faster scaling. Investments into branch infrastructure, ERP, personnel and simulator capacity were strategically necessary but now temporarily dilute margins as revenues lag earlier expectations. As a result, operating leverage unlocks later and more gradually than previously modeled.
We therefore realign our model to a flatter and later ramp. In practical terms, this means FY25 becomes a consolidation year rather than the start of the expected acceleration (eNuW new: € 25.7m sales, € 0.9m EBITDA). The same holds true for FY26e, where we assume sales of € 29.4m, which still implies double-digit growth, albeit meaningfully flatter than in our prior model, as we previously assumed reform implementation already in H1'26e. Our updated projections reflect a more measured trajectory in which profitability expands alongside volume normalization, rather than through an abrupt step-change.
Crucially, competitive positioning has not weakened. Prolonged uncertainty pressures smaller analogue schools more than scaled operators, reinforcing consolidation dynamics. 123f remains best positioned to capture market share once regulatory clarity returns.
Overall, the story shifts from near-term growth to delayed but intact transformation. We maintain our BUY rating but adjust our PT to € 6.10 reflect the revised trajectory.
ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9
