Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding
FY25 guidance likely met // FY26 returning to growth With annual results 2025 to be published by Semperit on 18th of March, here is what to expect for Q4 2025 and full year figures: Q4 revenue looks set to come in at € 179.6m, +5.7% yoy (eNuW), benefitting from sequential improvements following the particularly weak Q1, due to challenging market conditions and project delays; FY revenue -2% yoy to € 663m (eNuW). Q4 EBITDA of € 21.7m (eNuW), implies a largely flat margin; FY EBITDA of € 73.7m. With this, the company should meet its FY guidance of € 78m op. EBITDA (excl. ERP-related one-off expenses of approx. € 5m (eNuW)). Semperit's two segments are seen to paint two different pictures in Q4:
Despite less working capital releases and the weaker operational performance, FCF should remain positive as the company benefits from lower CAPEX (€ 42m vs. € 65m in FY24) due to postponements of non-essential projects and production capacity investments. While cost-control/reduction was a key focus area in FY25 (€ 6-7m of planned € 10m savings were already realized), FY26 should be marked by a return to profitable growth. A return to growth. FY26e group sales are seen to rise by 7.2% yoy to € 711m, looking set to benefit from gradually improving end market demand, partial price increases and additional growth optimizing initiatives in the short-term. Importantly, both segments are seen to contribute to growth. EBITDA to rise disproportionally by 18% yoy to € 87m (margin +1.1pp yoy to 12.2%) on the back of an improving fix-cost coverage, the full effect of last-years cost saving initiatives (€ 10m total savings p.a.) and likely lower raw material headwinds (e.g. synthetic rubber). Semperit's prospects are bright, as its strong technological edge, high product quality and reliability continue to ensure its leading position in the internal rubber and plastics industry. In recent years, the company has reviewed processes and headcounts, reduced costs, now increasingly reflected by higher margins but also laid grounds for future growth by expanding its production sites to get ahead of the next cyclical upswing. The latter should benefit from the fact that construction industries of several end markets have likely passed the trough (based on building permits and PMI). The still outstanding infrastructure package could turn into an additional notable tailwind. Maintaining BUY at € 18.5 based on DCF. You can download the research here: semperit-ag-holding-2026-02-05-previewreview-en-274f5 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2271772 05.02.2026 CET/CEST
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