New analysis reveals how delivery risk is reshaping carbon removal procurement across pathways
LONDON, Feb. 11, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Supercritical today released new market data showing that biochar suppliers delivered 54% fewer tonnes of carbon removal than originally forecast. The data highlights the delivery gap in the world's most established carbon removal method and what it means for delivery risk across carbon removal pathways.
The findings are published as part of Supercritical's new report, Delivered or Delayed? How delivery risk is reshaping carbon removal procurement, which examines why underdelivery has become a structural feature of the carbon removal market and how buyers can design procurement strategies to manage it.
Biochar serves as an early stress test for delivery risk, offering a window into challenges that are likely to be more pronounced in less mature technologies.
Drawing on proprietary data that provides marketwide visibility into biochar capacity forecasts and delivery data, Supercritical's analysis found that:
| 73% | of biochar projects revised capacity downward in 2025 | ||
| 55% | delivered no credits at all | ||
| 27% | remained on target | ||
Biochar has long been considered the backbone of durable carbon removal, accounting for the vast majority of credits delivered to date. The new data shows that even this mature pathway is constrained by financing delays, slower-than-expected scale-up, and operational realities that were underestimated in early projections.
"Carbon removal is not software. We're talking about physical infrastructure,"
said Michelle You, CEO and Co-Founder of Supercritical.
"Delays aren't about bad actors or broken science. They come with scaling new technologies. Buyers can deal with underdelivery, but only if they build portfolios designed to absorb it."
Why it matters
As corporate net-zero commitments harden into interim targets shaped by SBTi guidance and emerging regulation, when tonnes arrive matters as much as whether they arrive at all. Underdelivery creates immediate consequences for cost, compliance, and credibility, particularly in a market where high-quality supply is already scarce.
The report finds that delivery risk rises when buyers rely on optimistic ramp-up assumptions, rigid timelines tied to individual projects, and vague contracts that defer decisions about shortfalls. Delivery risk falls when buyers adopt diversified portfolios across suppliers and pathways, conservative delivery ranges grounded in operating history, and contracts that define remedies for underdelivery in advance.
Supercritical's report argues that the market is now moving from a catalytic phase focused on pledges and early support to a performance phase where delivery against near-term targets determines outcomes.
Download the full report
About Supercritical
Supercritical helps enterprise buyers procure high-quality carbon removal with confidence. We track 80% of global durable CDR supply, maintain commercial relationships with leading biochar producers, and apply rigorous scientific vetting to ensure every credit meets enterprise standards. Trusted by The Economist Group, Virgin Atlantic, and Rothschild & Co.
https://gosupercritical.com/
Contact: Barbara Mendes / barbara@gosupercritical.com
