INDUS to have a good start into 2026, amongst others, supported by its acquisition of Pro Video at the end of last year. In detail:
For 2026 group top-line growth of 6.1% yoy to € 1.85bn (eNuW) is expected. 4.9% organic growth (eNuW) is to be driven by favorable end market developments in Engineering and Infrastructure. First-time consolidated revenue of € 4.6m (eNuW) from 2025 acquisitions and € 16-18m (eNuW) from the announced Pro Video deal are included in the forecast. With a € 100m acquisition budget (eNuW), we expect to see 3 more deals in 2026, potentially contributing € 25-30m in revenue. If completed early in the year, the deal count may rise in H2.
Adj. EBITA margin is to rise by 0.9 pp yoy to 9.1% in FY 26e (eNuW), largely driven by decreasing pricing pressure in engineering and infrastructure, as well as ongoing cost control. A prudent cost approach and own recycling capacities could support mitigating cost increases from an increasing reliance on the tungsten spot markets in the months to come. Adj. EBITA should grow by 37% yoy to € 167m, including € 2.4 - 2.7m (eNuW) contributed by Pro Video.
Engineering should grow by 7% yoy to € 660m (eNuW) in revenue, including 3% growth from Pro Video. Real German machinery production is expected to return to growth in 2026, following -5% yoy in 2025 (source: VDMA). INDUS seems to have maintained growth of 0.5% (eNuW) in 2025 and we expect it to continue outperform the industry benchmark due to its niche applications. Assuming fading pricing pressure across end markets, the adj. EBITA margin should improve from 7% (eNuW) in 2025 to 8.7% (eNuW) in 2026.
Infrastructure revenue is to rise by 10.5% yoy to € 662m (eNuW). Construction should pick up with a higher number of German building permits issued in the months following March 2025 compared to the previous year and German construction output growing for the first time in nine months by 0.4% yoy in October 2025. The adj. EBITA margin should climb from 9% (eNuW) in 2025 to 10.6% (eNuW) in 2026.
Materials Solutions will have to navigate ongoing tight supply of tungsten while attempting to preserve margins. We expect this to remain difficult, but solvable for H1, while visibility on H2 is limited. Conservatively estimated, we anticipate negative sales growth of 3% yoy (eNuW: € 526m) for 2026, with an adj. EBITA-margin of 7.6% (eNuW) against a projected 8.6% margin in 2025 (eNuW).
Acquisitions are to remain key strategic focus. In Engineering-related niche segments valuations remain attractive on comparably low order books, yet 10-11% CAGR until 2030 are feasible. In Materials Solutions and Infrastructure, we expect INDUS to seek further diversification with companies in respective fields of interest indicated to grow by 7-8% CAGR until 2030.
We expect solid operational performance in gradually improving end markets, enhanced by the company's buy-and-build strategy. Pledged € 500bn of German infrastructure spending may provide another tailwind. Confirming BUY at € 34.5 based on FCFY 2026e.
ISIN: DE0006200108
