Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB
Strong Q4 execution, scaling to continue, chg. Astor closed FY'25 with a very strong Q4, confirming that the group is converting the elevated defence demand environment into measurable results. Sales reached SEK 189m (+107% yoy) and EBITDA came in at SEK 45m (23.8% margin), a step-up against a tough comp. Importantly, Astor delivered 51% yoy organic growth in Q4, which speaks to real throughput gains despite rapid group expansion. Performance was broad-based. Astor Industry grew sales to SEK 69m (+49% yoy), Astor Tech to SEK 68m (+51% yoy), and Astor Protect reported SEK 52m (predominantly M&A-driven). On profitability: Tech EBITDA stood out as it rose to SEK 24m (+83% yoy) with a 36.3% margin, highlighting the upside of longer-cycle EW solutions (incl. drone jamming) by Oscilion, in our view. While order intake was soft in Q4 (SEK 59m, 0.3x b-t-b), this should not be a cause of concern. Defence procurement is inherently lumpy. More importantly, the company ended the year with an order book of SEK 420m, and guides that SEK 409m is expected to be delivered in 2026, which implies solid near-term delivery visibility irrespective of one quarter's booking pattern. In parallel, the associated company NSG reported c. SEK 294m order intake in Q4 and an order book of c. SEK 412m, reinforcing that procurement activity is ongoing across the ecosystem, even if timing differs between entities and quarters. Against that backdrop, we view Q4 order intake as timing noise rather than a demand signal. Cross-reads remain supportive as well, with sustained order momentum at major primes such as BAE Systems and Saab typically translating into continued pull-through for specialised suppliers like Astor. Ammunity scaling remains the key medium-term earnings lever. Ammunity already contributed SEK 38m sales from 1 November alone. Management's announced SEK 92m capacity investment (with capex partly initiated in 2025) targets expanded lines, machine capacity, and testing. Astor indicates this could enable up to 6x current annual volumes over time, with a positive sales and profitability impact from the latter part of 2026 onwards, addressing structural demand. Finally, the balance sheet remains solid, with SEK 211m cash and net cash of SEK 35m at year-end, preserving flexibility for further organic expansion and selective M&A. Q4 provides clean evidence of delivery execution and margin traction. With backlog visibility and Ammunity ramping, we reiterate BUY. PT reset to SEK 51 (old: SEK 57) is methodology-driven (peer group included for the first time). We continue to see >40% upside to a broad listed defence peer group on PER 27e. - analyst change - You can download the research here: scandinavian-astor-group-ab-2026-02-19-previewreview-en-2e206 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2278432 19.02.2026 CET/CEST
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