NAGA recently reported preliminary FY25 figures that came in as a mixed bag with slightly softer than expected sales but stable OPEX. Further, the company provided a dnew guidance for FY26e. In detail:
Sales came in at € 62.4m (-1% yoy), below our estimates of € 64.4m, but in line with the reduced guidance of € 62-66m, published in December 2025. The comapny reached the only the lower end of the guidance due to FX-effects that amount to c. € 3m, related to the weak UDS. In general, topline in FY25 was burdened by a low average volatility environment that should have caused lower trading activity, that should have been been visible in a only flat number of closed trades (eNuW: 7.6m, vs 7.6m in FY24). Positively, number of registered users increased by 13% yoy and overall trading volume rose by 36% yoy to $ 334bn, hence, underlying platform attractiveness remained well perceived.
EBITDA stood at € 3.3m (-61% yoy vs eNuW: € 4.6m), which is at the lower end of the guidance range of € 3-6m, clearly caused by the FX effects that burdened topline. While marketing spending increased by 18% to € 28.2m, overall OPEX (ex marketing) declined slightly from € 22.7m to € 21.7m (vs eNuW: € 21.5m), driven by synergy effects from the merger and increasing operational efficiency and automation.
Overall 2025 was a rather disappointing year characterized by a low volatility environment that weighed heavy on trading activity and revenues. Still, management improved processes and increased automation as well as operational efficiency. With increased marketing spending in a low volatility environment, NAGA invested anti-cyclically in client acquisition using lower CPA. With that NAGA looks well prepared for a phase of higher volatility to restart its growth engine. Note that the full effects of improved processes and efficiency will be visible from FY26 onwards.
In light of a good start into 2026 (revenues in January up 117% yoy), NAGA provided a new outlook for FY26, now expecting to reach sales of € 68-75m and EBITDA of € 10-15m. While the topline is in line with our expectation (eNuW: € 70.3m), the EBITDA guidance looks ambitious (eNuW: € 9.5m). Still, a normalized volatility level throughout 2026 as well as certain volatility spikes would change the picture. Further, a full year lower cost run-rate following efficiency gains, should additionally increase EBITDA levels. Still, we remain cautious for the moment and leave some room for potential upside in our estimates.
We reiterate BUY with a unchanged PT of € 9.50 based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A41YCM0
