Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to UmweltBank AG
Operational turnaround achieved in 2025, continued growth expected With the publication of the preliminary figures, UmweltBank's management has published forecasts for the current 2026 financial year for the first time and at the same time updated its forecast scenario up to 2028. For 2026, the bank anticipates earnings before taxes and reserves of €12.5 million to €17.5 million, which would represent at least a doubling of earnings. This is based in particular on a sharp rise in expected interest income to a range of €62.5 million to €67.5 million. This is based on the planned expansion of retail customer deposits to €5.4 billion, before they are expected to increase further to €6.2 billion by 2028. The special conditions that have been introduced are to be continued for the time being. However, positive effects in connection with the introduction of current accounts and the expansion of the product portfolio are likely to come to the fore increasingly. At the same time, the now significantly more comfortable capital base should be used to expand the loan portfolio. According to UmweltBank AG's plan, the implementation of postponed projects and the development of new business areas (such as battery storage and PPA financing for wind power plants) should increase gross new lending to €450 million. This would also increase the outstanding loan volume to €3.2 billion by the end of the 2026 financial year. UmweltBank AG expects this figure to rise to €3.8 billion by the end of 2028. On this basis, and based on a continued improvement in its treasury positioning, where it plans to build up short- to-medium-term investment portfolios while the yield curve rises, the increase in net interest income is expected to be achieved. Our forecasts for the following years are based on the company's updated plan scenario with regard to customer deposits and lending volume. In the last estimation period, however, we assume a slightly flatter growth curve. According to our estimates, the noticeable increase in net interest income would be sufficient to compensate for the expected low financial result. Commission and trading income are also likely to contribute to the increase in total income. The company plans to gradually expand its product portfolio in this area. The introduction of various equity and bond ETFs is planned for the current financial year. The earnings growth we assume is likely to be accompanied by a disproportionately low increase in costs. After UmweltBank AG invested in digitalization and transformation in previous fiscal years, savings should be achieved as part of the current efficiency and cost program. This is particularly true as the resolution of regulatory deficits has freed up personnel capacities. Based on the company scenario, we initially expect operating expenses (personnel expenses and other administrative expenses) to decline to €67.14 million (previous year: €71.29 million) in the current 2026 financial year, before rising again in the course of the expected business expansion. For 2028, we are calculating a CIR (cost-income ratio) of 80.9%. According to UmweltBank's plan scenario, this is expected to fall to below 60% by 2028. Due to the flatter growth curve, we are anticipating a CIR of 67.4% in this final estimation period. All in all, we expect a significant increase in both pre-tax earnings and net income. Since we do not anticipate any reversal of reserves and will also include tax expenses again after returning to sustainable profitability, the forecast net income for the current 2026 financial year will initially decline. However, tax expenses are likely to continue to benefit from the reversal of loss carryforwards for which UmweltBank had not recognized deferred tax assets. We used a residual income model to value UmweltBank AG. The sum of the discounted residual earnings amounts to €380.14 million (previously: €388.30 million). Taking into account the 41.28 million outstanding shares, the fair enterprise value per share is €9.00 (previously: €9.40). The reduction in fair value is mainly due to the increase in the discount rate to 5.84% (previously: 5.34%). This results from an increase in the risk-free interest rate. We continue to assign a BUY rating. You can download the research here: 20260303_UmweltBank_Comment_engl Contact for questions: GBC AG Halderstraße 27 86150 Augsburg 0821 / 241133 0 research@gbc-ag.de ++++++++++++++++ Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung +++++++++++++++ Date (time) Completion: 02.03.2026 (1:52 pm) Date (time) first transmission: 03.03.2026 (10:00 am) The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||
2284432 03.03.2026 CET/CEST
