Original-Research: q.beyond AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG
QBY puts out upbeat 2028 targets; chg. Yesterday, QBY presented its "Strategy 2028", marking a pivotal shift in the investment narrative from a pure margin recovery story to a structured growth case. In detail: For FY28, management targets € 250m in sales and a ~10% EBITDA margin (1.8x implied FY28 EV/EBITDA). The building blocks for these, in our view bullish, targets are a c. 5% organic sales CAGR, AI-driven upside and targeted M&A. This is underpinned by three strategic pillars: Industry focus driving margins. Going forward, QBY intends to deepen its strongholds in logistics (€ 25m of FY25p sales) and retail (€ 50m), while entering healthcare and energy via M&A. Both new verticals currently feature fragmented IT landscapes and high regulatory complexity, thus posing a fertile ground for sovereign platforms like QBY's. The M&A filter is disciplined, targeting companies with >10% EBITDA margins. While the strategic logic is sound, execution remains unproven . Encouragingly, management reiterated on the call that capital discipline takes precedence over deal velocity, even after having passed on several transactions last year on valuation grounds. A reassuring signal given the € 42m net cash position. Overall, M&A is expected to contribute c. € 20m towards the FY28 revenue target, with at least one deal anticipated in FY26 (eNuW). Note that future inorganic growth is not reflected in our estimates. Top-line acceleration via AI orchestration. QBY is currently in the midst of transforming into a sovereign AI orchestrator for the German Mittelstand, building and operating industry-specific agents on its BSI-certified German data centre infrastructure. In our view, this is the most value-relevant pillar and it appears more tangible than typical AI strategy slides. The company already has a handful of paying external AI clients, is confident of reaching 20 by YE, and already has >300 agents deployed. The commercial model targets € 100-300k in recurring Managed Service sales per customer, with setup and development fees on top. The sovereign positioning creates a genuine moat against hyperscalers in the Mittelstand. However, the key open question is how quickly the recurring revenue share builds up, as the consulting-heavy early phase will be margin-dilutive before it inflects. Management targets >60 enterprise clients by FY28, translating into c. € 20m in AI revenues. We view this as ambitious and position ourselves more conservatively (eNuW: € 10m), preferring to see further tangible progress first. Internationalisation. Nearshore hubs in Spain and Latvia are aimed to be converted into active sales hubs, targeting 10% international revenue share by FY28 vs. 3% today. This would pose a significant diversification away from the stagnating German market, though the financial impact remains comparably modest relative to the other two pillars. Besides that, management targets FY26 sales of € 182-190m and € 10-16m, implying further margin expansion progress at mid-point. CEO Rixen confirmed on the call that the lower end represents a pure macro stress scenario and not a strategic investment drag, leaving the underlying margin trajectory intact. That said, valuation remains highly undemanding, as shares are trading at only 3.0x FY26e EV/EBITDA. BUY, new PT of € 6.50 (post capital reduction) based on DCF. You can download the research here: qbeyond-ag-2026-03-24-update-en-11fd8 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2296380 24.03.2026 CET/CEST
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