Equity markets started the year on a strong footing, but the sudden escalation of conflict in the Middle East has since complicated issuance windows for the remainder of 2026. Global issuance reached USD 256.8 billion in 1Q26, up 43 percent year-on-year.
Looking ahead, dealmakers will prioritize transactions executable amid reduced consumer incomes and a pause in global rate cuts, driven by higher energy costs from the Gulf conflict. A rapid resolution could present a markedly different outlook from prolonged elevated oil prices and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. However, with significant damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and doubts over whether the US can unilaterally end the conflict, markets continue to swing between bearish caution and bursts of opportunism.
The rest of 2026 may hinge on potential US mega listings, including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Any of these could materially shift ECM volumes, with SpaceX viewed as the closest to listing readiness and capable of adding a quarter's worth of issuance on its own. Despite geopolitical volatility, strong first-quarter issuance shows investors remain prepared to deploy capital, and issuers may still find selective windows even if turbulence persists into 2Q.
Key insights from the report
- Global issuance rose Y-o-Y: Global ECM volumes rose to USD 256.8 billion in 1Q26, with deal count at 1,643 versus USD 179.5bn from 1,448 trades in 1Q25 (QTD). Global IPO volumes totaled USD 45 billion, a 40 percent increase from 1Q25, but below the exceptionally strong second half of last year. The US and Hong Kong (China) were the two busiest exchanges by deal value, while Japan ranked third.
- Americas led regional activity: The Americas remained the strongest region with USD 132.1 billion in ECM issuance (including cross-border deals), up 64 percent Y-o-Y. IPOs reached around USD 23.7 billion in 1Q26, already approaching the full-year totals of 2022 and 2023. SPACs accounted for more than half of proceeds from new listings, while traditional IPO activity remained subdued. The region's largest deals included Oracle's convertible bond and the Medline follow-on by pre-IPO shareholders.
- EMEA issuance softened: EMEA recorded USD 46.6 billion off 305 deals, compared with USD 45.2 billion from 314 deals in 1Q25. A handful of large-cap deals drove activity, as investors gravitated towards scale, liquidity and well-understood equity stories to offset uncertainty. Follow-ons dominated, supported by the jumbo block trade in Galderma Group and the sell-down in Zurich Insurance Group.
- APAC saw strong Y-o-Y growth: APAC issuance hit USD 79.6 billion, a 35.9 percent increase from the same period last year, led by Hong Kong (China). Japan contributed USD 12.5 billion, though issuance dropped 50 percent from February to March amid sensitivity to energy shocks, raising concerns for the rest of the year. Dealmaking softened for a second straight quarter, weighed by slower activity in Hong Kong and a sharper drop in India.
Sam Kerr, Head of Global ECM and Mergermarket EMEA, says, "The first quarter of 2026 began on a wave of optimism following a strong finish to 2025, but geopolitical volatility has disrupted hopes for a sustained 2026 recovery. While markets remain open and there is hope for a swift resolution to the conflict, prolonged high energy prices are making it harder for issuers and investors to model earnings and risk, complicating deal flow for the foreseeable future."
To download the full report, click here.
**All data accurate as of 26 March 2026 (QTD comparison).
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