According to Atradius Senior Economist Theo Smid, "Our insolvency forecast has deteriorated due to the persistence of adverse economic conditions, including Covid-related tax debts, rising input costs and ongoing trade tensions. The crisis in the Middle East, together with the associated increase in energy prices, adds to existing pressures. The impact on businesses will depend largely on the length of the conflict."
Atradius' baseline scenario assumes that the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz will begin to normalise from May, with only limited damage to Gulf infrastructure. If the disruption lasts longer, the insolvency projections would need to be revised.
Looking further ahead, the outlook improves in 2027, when insolvencies are projected to decline by 6% as inflation recedes, energy markets normalise and central banks regain room to reduce rates.
Regional outlook
In Europe, Atradius expects the highest rise in Switzerland, Italy and Portugal, while Ireland, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands are set for decreases. Across the eurozone, companies continue to operate under substantial pressure in 2026. Higher energy prices, driven by disruptions in gas markets linked to the conflict in the Middle East, are feeding through to broader inflation and weighing on margins.
North America remains divided. In the United States, insolvencies are forecast to rise by 8% in 2026. The economic climate remains challenging for companies, with high trade tariffs and increased policy uncertainty continuing to weigh on the operating environment. In contrast, Canada is expected to see a decline in insolvencies as filings continue to normalise following the sharp rise in 2024.
In Asia-Pacific, most monitored markets are set for decreases as insolvencies begin to retreat from historically high levels. New Zealand and Hong Kong show the strongest downward adjustments, while Australia, Japan and South Korea are likely to normalise more slowly.
For more detailed forecasts by country and region, access the full Atradius Insolvency Outlook.
Atradius
More information at https://group.atradius.com.
Press contact
Pavel Gómez del Castillo
pavel.gomezdelcastillo@atradius.com
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