On Friday, Semperit released its preliminary Q1 EBITDA ahead of its quarterly report publication scheduled for May 13th, signaling a significant beat of expectations. In detail:
Q1 EBITDA soared by approx. 134% yoy to around € 26m, materially ahead of our expectation of a 25% yoy improvement leading to € 13.9m (eNuW). In our opinion, the strong result was driven by three circumstances: Firstly, a weak comparable base: in Q1 25 the company faced a challenging market environment and project delays. Secondly, the company is strengthening its margins through ongoing cost control and its current cost savings program of € 10m annually, of which € 6m were completed in FY 25. Thirdly, we expect the company to have faced continued positive demand momentum, potentially aided by warm weather in February and March driving construction demand.
Our view on material costs. The strong recent performance supports our view that Semperit can absorb short-term raw material price spikes over a 4-6 week period without significant margin impact. Prices for synthetic and natural rubber have started to retreat from recent peaks (-8.3% and -3%) following supply disruptions in Asia and geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict. We expect levels to remain elevated and volatile in Q2, implying potential P&L pressure. In response, the company should seek to pass on raw material inflation through pricing, on which timing and execution remain key.
Raw material prices could normalize from currently unsustainably high levels over the course of the year, offering upside to margins. Material availability appears secure for now, supported by Semperit's diversified sourcing approach, though ongoing geopolitical uncertainty poses risks. Our operational EBITDA forecast reflects this backdrop, incorporating a 12.2% yoy increase in material expenses.
Looking ahead, the strong preliminary result firmly underlines our view that the FY26 guidance of operational EBITDA of € 95m is achievable. Hence, we raise our revenue estimates to € 724m (eNuW) and our operational EBITDA estimate to € 100m (eNuW), excluding project costs of approx. € 5m (eNuW).
Further operational improvements are expected as the company advances its cost-cutting program, ERP project, and product portfolio reviews. Additional drivers in our view include higher capacity utilization from continued demand strengthening and ongoing price negotiations with customers.
If demand continues to strengthen materially, moving ahead on the company's ramp-up on production capacities could follow, although exact timing is not quite certain yet at the current stage. This should include finishing preparations on its two extended facilities, which the company largely completed during its cyclical downturn.
Maintaining BUY at a raised PT of € 21.5 (previously € 21.0), based on DCF.
ISIN: AT0000785555
