The 2026 report highlights top drivers of global pharmaceutical sales, M&A, and China's continued impact on the industry
LONDON, June 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Evaluate, the leading provider of market insights for the pharmaceutical industry, today released its 2026 World Preview Report, providing updated insights for the global pharmaceutical market. The 2026 iteration forecasts that worldwide prescription drug sales will surpass $2 trillion in 2032, with compounded annual growth between 2025-2032 topping 7%. In addition to obesity drugs, the report details the continuation of the "big drug" era impacting M&A, a U.S. market beset by uncertainty, and the urgent questions facing pharma today.
China continues to be a major player in the pharma industry. Its role has evolved to become a strategic imperative for the entire ecosystem, from large pharmas through to venture capitalists and start-ups. Chinese assets are forecast to make up more than two-thirds of total deal value in 2026, up from a half in 2025 and less than 5% five years ago. These deals are becoming less transactional and increasingly collaborative, pointing towards China's longer-term ambitions.
"The 2026 World Preview Report's findings give us confidence that, despite regulatory uncertainties and an increase in competition across the globe, the pharmaceutical market is fundamentally strong," said Daniel Chancellor, Vice President of Thought Leadership at Norstella, Evaluate's parent company. "However, as patents expire and global competition intensifies, it's becoming increasingly clear that the industry is at the edge of shift. How pharma prepares for this transition will define whether its current momentum can be sustained throughout the next decade."
In addition to answering these urgent questions, the World Preview Report also outlines:
- GLP-1s are still a huge market driver due to a single active ingredient. Eli Lilly's tirzepatide brands Mounjaro and Zepbound will be worth over $70B by 2032, making it the biggest drug ever - even more valuable than Pfizer/BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccines.
- Immunology is the other major growth driver, particularly with new biologics able to target multiple conditions driven by self-directed immune system attack. In fact, immunomodulators are forecast to outgrow the metabolic/endocrine therapy area through 2032, with a 10% CAGR.
- The patent cliff has boosted pharma M&A for the last several years, and this cycle will only continue as big drugs get bigger and competition intensifies. Between 2026 and 2032, more than $500bn in sales are potentially at risk from generic competition.
- If the current pace of M&A continues, 2026 will see a total deal value in the region of $200B. This could represent a record-setting year for the industry, releasing much-needed investment to support the next generation of biotech start-ups.
- Obesity and oncology drugs are the most valuable R&D projects. The top five pipeline candidates all target these diseases, with Summit Therapeutic/Akeso Pharma's Idafang and Eli Lilly's retatrutide both having valuations exceeding $20B.
Additional analysis is included in the full report, which is available here, and a webinar featuring discussion and insight from the report is available on demand here.
About Evaluate Ltd
Since 1996, Evaluate has provided the life sciences industry with the data, insight and intelligence to facilitate confident decision making on high-value investments in treatments and markets. We enable our clients to embed our proprietary & industry data into their workflows, tools and processes so they can work more effectively and efficiently. For more information about Evaluate, visit www.evaluate.com and follow us on LinkedIn and X.
About Norstella
Norstella is a global life sciences company whose brands - Citeline, Evaluate, MMIT, Panalgo, Skipta, and the Dedham Group - provide cutting-edge technology, unparalleled data, and expert insights and consultancy across the drug development lifecycle. Norstella's AI engine supports decision-making across forecasting, clinical trial design & regulatory strategy, market access, and patient activation. With the patient at the center, Norstella smooths the path to life-saving therapies for patients and providers. For more information, visit Norstella and follow on LinkedIn.
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