Following the capital increase and the new mid-term outlook presented at its CMD, OHB is in our view well positioned to win and execute on upcoming contracts. This is supported by a strengthened balance sheet, a clear right to win as Europe's leading independent space prime, and a multi-year demand upcycle backed by rising ESA, EU and national defence budgets. This supports our BUY.
Mid-term targets imply c. 27% organic sales CAGR into 2030e. The company targets total operating mid-term performance of € >4bn (eNuW: 2030e), up from € 1.2bn in 2025, and an adj. EBITDA margin of c. 13%, i.e. +c. 3pp vs 2025. The margin bridge rests on scale, industrialisation and a richer defence mix (eNuW: 50% vs 22% today). The defence step-up, led by SATCOMBw4, could support margins slightly above the 13% target (eNuW), as OHB was already targeting >12% before the recent increase in German defence spending and as management indicated that one large identified opportunity could support an overshoot versus the targets. HENSOLDT, which also executes large, long-cycle development projects for the German Bundeswehr, such as the new Eurofighter radar, targets EBITDA margins of around 19%, providing a useful defence-margin reference point.
Right to win. As the only independent German space prime, with 25 years of Bundeswehr heritage, OHB is well placed for Germany's sovereignty-led programmes: SPOCK 2 (next-gen military space surveillance) via the KIRK consortium (OHB/Helsing JV, with Kongsberg and HENSOLDT); SATCOMBw4 (sovereign milsatcom worth up to € 10bn) via the OHB Rheinmetall Space Networks JV; and SBMD (space-based missile defence/early-warning worth c. € 3bn, eNuW).
OHB's capital increase strengthens the balance sheet for industrialisation, capacity expansion and selective M&A, with c. € 482m gross proceeds already secured (up to c. € 511m possible after the smaller rights offering for existing minority shareholders). The implied share-count increase of up to c. 8.9% is seen to materially improve liquidity and index eligibility, with free float rising from c. 5.7% to slightly above 20%, helped by KKR's parallel placement of existing shares. The Fuchs family remains majority shareholder with >60%, while KKR retains c. 20%. Transaction costs are expected to burden 2026e EBIT by c. € 5m.
Potential catalyst: Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA). RFA remains outside OHB's new mid-term guidance and is only captured in our valuation as a financial asset worth € 145m. Yet, the asset could become more visible soon. RFA is developing RFA ONE, a three-stage small-launch vehicle for flexible European access to orbit. Its maiden flight from SaxaVord, targeted for summer 2026, could bring it closer to commercialisation. Isar Aerospace, RFA's closest German peer, is slightly further advanced, having already completed a first test flight with its own launcher, but it is also still pre-commercial. Hence, its reported valuation of € >2bn in June 2026 (following a private financing round) provides a useful, albeit imperfect, cross-read for a potential post-first-flight valuation of RFA.
Action: the recent capital increase as well as credible new mid-term targets are reflected in our estimates (new 2030 sales: € 4bn, previously: € 3.5bn). BUY, new PT € 340 (old: € 320), on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005936124
