DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - For those who depend on imported natural gas for heating, cooking and generating electricity, the specter of an OPEC-like cartel hiking prices of the world's gas supplies sounds like a disaster.
But experts say a gas cartel that resembles the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries group would be tough to achieve, even if it does come under discussion in Qatar on Monday at a two-day gathering of the world's largest gas-producing countries.
Unlike oil, which is traded on an exchange that constantly updates the market price based on supply and demand, most gas is sold under tight contracts that allow buyers to lock in prices for up to 25 years.
The formation of a gas exchange has been difficult because most natural gas is delivered via pipelines and is not as easily shipped around the world to different buyers as oil. Pipeline infrastructure also requires significant investment that often makes long-term contracts necessary.
The idea of a gas producers' cartel is so unpopular that importing countries might react by replacing gas with other forms of energy, said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
'If it (a cartel) is formed, it will not be good news for either producers or consumers,' Birol said in an interview last week with The Associated Press. 'The producing countries should be careful in terms of keeping their market share.'
But others say a natural gas cartel is likely as more gas is supercooled into liquid and shipped aboard tankers whose cargos can be resold on spot markets as the ship is under way.
'We're moving toward selling to the market, to the highest bidder,' said Dalton Garis, an American economist at the Petroleum Institute in Abu Dhabi, who believes the creation of a fluid pricing system would enable the emergence of a 'gas OPEC.'
Liquefied natural gas currently commands a quarter of the market, but Birol predicted it will account for half by 2030.
However, energy observers are unsure whether officials from the 16-member Gas Producing Countries Forum have the political will to form a cartel in the face of growing hostility from their customers, especially the European Union, which has openly decried the idea.
The four biggest member countries -- Russia, Iran, Qatar and Algeria -- are credited by BP PLC with ownership of a combined 58 percent of global gas reserves.
But energy officials in member states are backing away from earlier statements in favor of a cartel. Those statements first emerged in January when Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposed Iran and Russia create a cartel.
In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Qatari Emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani agreed to explore the idea. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika of Algeria and President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela are also known to support creation of a cartel.
But on Friday, Russian Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said no documents on creating a natural gas cartel would be signed at the Doha meeting, according to Russian news agencies.
And on Saturday, Iran's OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, downplayed cartel talk by saying gas producing countries were only looking for closer cooperation to ensure international markets were securely supplied.
The onset of a gas cartel has alarmed leaders in Europe, where concerns loom about the EU's growing dependence on Russia, which already supplies 44 percent of its imported gas.
Russia's growing clout as an energy supplier was demonstrated this year when it stopped pumping oil to Belarus, and last year when it shut off gas supplies to Ukraine. In both cases, European dependency was painfully exposed.
'The Russians would encourage (a cartel) but they don't want to be the first,' Garis said. 'They have a couple of bad marks against them with regard to gas supplies for Europe, and so they don't want to be perceived as moving in this direction.'
But Russia would happily jump on board if the other countries led the way, he said.
Gas supplies about 23 percent of the world's energy. That makes it the third biggest energy source behind petroleum, 36 percent, and coal, 26 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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