TOKYO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Japan's industrial output likely rose 0.5 percent in September from the previous month, but economists are concerned that Japanese manufacturers may report a bleak projection on output in coming months.
Consumer price inflation is seen edging down from recent decade-high levels as prices of almost all kinds of commodities and energy have tumbled since the summer.
Following are polls for major Japanese indicators scheduled for the week of Oct 27-31:
LOCAL LOCAL MEDIAN
DATE TIME/GMT INDICATOR PERIOD F/CAST PRIOR
28OCT 0850/2350* Retail Sales (y/y) Sep 0.0% 0.7%
29OCT 0850/2350* Industrial Output (m/m) Sep 0.5%
3.5%
31OCT 0830/2330* CPI
Core Nationwide (y/y) Sep 2.3% 2.4%
31OCT 0830/2330* CPI
Core Tokyo (y/y) Oct 1.5% 1.7%
31OCT 0830/2330* Unemployment Rate Sep 4.2% 4.2%
31OCT 0830/2330* Jobs/Applicants Ratio Sep 0.85 0.86
31OCT 0830/2330* All Households Spend (y/y) Sep -3.9%
4.0%
31OCT 1400/0500 Housing Starts (y/y) Sep 50.8% 53.6%
Note: Dates and times are local, followed by GMT time. Asterisk* means GMT is previous day.
RETAIL SALES
-- Retail sales have been weak due to slack personal consumption and concerns about job security, with consumers feeling a pinch from high energy and food costs and an economic slowdown.
-- Retail sales were probably flat in nominal terms in September from the same month last year. Forecasts from 19 economists ranged from a rise of 0.5 percent to a 0.9 percent fall.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
-- Industrial production likely rose 0.5 percent in September after a 3.5 percent fall in August but economists are concerned that manufacturers may post a bleak outlook for output.
-- Output will have fallen 1.5 percent in July-September, the third consecutive quarter of falls, if the September reading matches market expectations.
-- That would be the longest such sequence since four consecutive quarters of decline in 2001, when Japan was last in recession.
-- For more than half a century, two quarters of declining industrial production have signalled a recession in Japan.
-- The following are forecasts for percentage changes in industrial production in September over August and over September the previous year:
M/M Y/Y
Median 0.5 -0.3
High 1.9 1.8
Low -1.9 -2.7
UBS -1.9 -2.7
Goldman Sachs -1.5 1.8
Lehman Brothers -0.7 0.4
Daiwa SB Investment -0.7 n/a
Calyon -0.5 -1.4
Mizuho Securities -0.4 -1.2
NLI Research -0.2 -1.1
Daiwa Research 0.0 -0.9
Dai-ichi Life Research 0.1 -0.7
HSBC Securities 0.2 -0.7
Daiwa SMBC 0.2 -0.6
Mizuho Research 0.3 -0.6
Barclays Capital 0.3 -0.6
Mitsui Sumitomo AM 0.3 -0.5
Deutsche Securities 0.3 n/a
Merrill Lynch 0.3 n/a
Norinchukin 0.4 -0.4
RBS 0.5 -0.4
Nikko Citigroup 0.5 -0.3
Credit Suisse 0.5 n/a
Mitsubishi UFJ Research 0.6 -0.3
Morgan Stanley 0.6 -0.3
Informa Global Markets 0.7 -0.2
Okasan Research 0.7 n/a
Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 0.8 -0.1
Shinko 0.8 -0.1
Japan Research 0.9 0.0
JP Morgan 1.0 0.1
Monex 1.1 0.2
Nomura Securities 1.3 0.4
Shinkin Central Bank 1.3 0.4
BNP Paribas 1.4 0.5
Mitsubishi UFJ Research 1.4 0.6
BOTM UFJ 1.9 1.0
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
-- Japan's core consumer inflation, which excludes fresh fruit, vegetables and seafood but includes oil products, is seen peaking from the current decade-high level since crude oil prices have retreated from their July peaks.
-- The Bank of Japan sees limited risk of price hikes in oil-related goods causing knock-on effects on broader prices, as wage gains in Japan remain stagnant and firms are reluctant to fully pass on high costs to consumers.
-- Following are forecasts for Tokyo core CPI in October and nationwide core CPI in September (percent, year-on-year):
Tokyo Oct Nationwide Sept
Median 1.5 2.3
High 1.7 2.5
Low 1.4 2.0
Merrill Lynch n/a 2.5
Informa Global Markets Japan 1.6 2.5
Mitsui Sumitomo AM 1.5 2.5
HSBC Securities 1.4 2.5
Daiwa SMBC 1.7 2.4
Shinkin Central Bank 1.6 2.4
RBS 1.6 2.4
BNP Paribas 1.5 2.4
Deutsche Securities 1.5 2.4
Mizuho Research 1.4 2.4
Nomura Securities 1.7 2.3
Mizuho Securities 1.6 2.3
UBS 1.6 2.3
Nikko Citigroup 1.6 2.3
Norinchukin Research 1.5 2.3
Mitsubishi Research 1.5 2.3
Morgan Stanley 1.5 2.3
NLI Research 1.5 2.3
Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 1.5 2.3
JP Morgan 1.5 2.3
Dai-ichi Life Research 1.5 2.3
Goldman Sachs 1.5 2.3
Barclays Capital 1.4 2.3
Japan Research 1.4 2.3
Shinko 1.4 2.3
Calyon 1.4 2.3
Mitsubishibank n/a 2.2
Credit Suisse 1.5 2.2
Daiwa Research 1.4 2.2
Okasan Research n/a 2.1
Mitsubishi UFJ Research 1.4 2.1
Daiwa SB Investment 1.4 2.0
JOBS DATA
-- Japan's jobless rate hit a two-year high and the availability of jobs sank to a four-year low in August as worsening economic conditions hit firms' appetite to hire.
-- The jobs-to-applicants ratio for September was probably 0.85, meaning 85 jobs were available per 100 applicants, with forecasts from 32 economists ranging from 0.82 to 0.87.
-- The unemployment rate was seen staying flat from last month at 4.2 percent in September. But of 32 economists surveyed, 14 saw it rising to 4.3 percent and one forecast a rise to 4.4 percent.
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
-- Household spending has been sluggish as consumer sentiment has been deteriorating amid recession fears.
-- Forecasts from 28 economists ranged from a fall of 6.0 percent to a rise of 2.1 percent for household spending in September from the same month a year earlier.
-- Economists warn against reading too much into the data, saying the gauge of personal consumption is flawed due to bad sampling.
HOUSING STARTS
-- Housing starts in August marked their first annual rise since June 2007 when tighter building rules were adopted in the wake of a scandal over falsified safety data and hit the construction sector hard.
-- A poll of 30 economists produced a median forecast of a 50.8 percent rise in housing starts for September from a year earlier, with forecasts ranging from a rise of 57.5 percent to 43.8 percent.
(Reporting by Tokyo Economic Policy Desk) . ng COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.
Consumer price inflation is seen edging down from recent decade-high levels as prices of almost all kinds of commodities and energy have tumbled since the summer.
Following are polls for major Japanese indicators scheduled for the week of Oct 27-31:
LOCAL LOCAL MEDIAN
DATE TIME/GMT INDICATOR PERIOD F/CAST PRIOR
28OCT 0850/2350* Retail Sales (y/y) Sep 0.0% 0.7%
29OCT 0850/2350* Industrial Output (m/m) Sep 0.5%
3.5%
31OCT 0830/2330* CPI
Core Nationwide (y/y) Sep 2.3% 2.4%
31OCT 0830/2330* CPI
Core Tokyo (y/y) Oct 1.5% 1.7%
31OCT 0830/2330* Unemployment Rate Sep 4.2% 4.2%
31OCT 0830/2330* Jobs/Applicants Ratio Sep 0.85 0.86
31OCT 0830/2330* All Households Spend (y/y) Sep -3.9%
4.0%
31OCT 1400/0500 Housing Starts (y/y) Sep 50.8% 53.6%
Note: Dates and times are local, followed by GMT time. Asterisk* means GMT is previous day.
RETAIL SALES
-- Retail sales have been weak due to slack personal consumption and concerns about job security, with consumers feeling a pinch from high energy and food costs and an economic slowdown.
-- Retail sales were probably flat in nominal terms in September from the same month last year. Forecasts from 19 economists ranged from a rise of 0.5 percent to a 0.9 percent fall.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
-- Industrial production likely rose 0.5 percent in September after a 3.5 percent fall in August but economists are concerned that manufacturers may post a bleak outlook for output.
-- Output will have fallen 1.5 percent in July-September, the third consecutive quarter of falls, if the September reading matches market expectations.
-- That would be the longest such sequence since four consecutive quarters of decline in 2001, when Japan was last in recession.
-- For more than half a century, two quarters of declining industrial production have signalled a recession in Japan.
-- The following are forecasts for percentage changes in industrial production in September over August and over September the previous year:
M/M Y/Y
Median 0.5 -0.3
High 1.9 1.8
Low -1.9 -2.7
UBS -1.9 -2.7
Goldman Sachs -1.5 1.8
Lehman Brothers -0.7 0.4
Daiwa SB Investment -0.7 n/a
Calyon -0.5 -1.4
Mizuho Securities -0.4 -1.2
NLI Research -0.2 -1.1
Daiwa Research 0.0 -0.9
Dai-ichi Life Research 0.1 -0.7
HSBC Securities 0.2 -0.7
Daiwa SMBC 0.2 -0.6
Mizuho Research 0.3 -0.6
Barclays Capital 0.3 -0.6
Mitsui Sumitomo AM 0.3 -0.5
Deutsche Securities 0.3 n/a
Merrill Lynch 0.3 n/a
Norinchukin 0.4 -0.4
RBS 0.5 -0.4
Nikko Citigroup 0.5 -0.3
Credit Suisse 0.5 n/a
Mitsubishi UFJ Research 0.6 -0.3
Morgan Stanley 0.6 -0.3
Informa Global Markets 0.7 -0.2
Okasan Research 0.7 n/a
Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 0.8 -0.1
Shinko 0.8 -0.1
Japan Research 0.9 0.0
JP Morgan 1.0 0.1
Monex 1.1 0.2
Nomura Securities 1.3 0.4
Shinkin Central Bank 1.3 0.4
BNP Paribas 1.4 0.5
Mitsubishi UFJ Research 1.4 0.6
BOTM UFJ 1.9 1.0
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
-- Japan's core consumer inflation, which excludes fresh fruit, vegetables and seafood but includes oil products, is seen peaking from the current decade-high level since crude oil prices have retreated from their July peaks.
-- The Bank of Japan sees limited risk of price hikes in oil-related goods causing knock-on effects on broader prices, as wage gains in Japan remain stagnant and firms are reluctant to fully pass on high costs to consumers.
-- Following are forecasts for Tokyo core CPI in October and nationwide core CPI in September (percent, year-on-year):
Tokyo Oct Nationwide Sept
Median 1.5 2.3
High 1.7 2.5
Low 1.4 2.0
Merrill Lynch n/a 2.5
Informa Global Markets Japan 1.6 2.5
Mitsui Sumitomo AM 1.5 2.5
HSBC Securities 1.4 2.5
Daiwa SMBC 1.7 2.4
Shinkin Central Bank 1.6 2.4
RBS 1.6 2.4
BNP Paribas 1.5 2.4
Deutsche Securities 1.5 2.4
Mizuho Research 1.4 2.4
Nomura Securities 1.7 2.3
Mizuho Securities 1.6 2.3
UBS 1.6 2.3
Nikko Citigroup 1.6 2.3
Norinchukin Research 1.5 2.3
Mitsubishi Research 1.5 2.3
Morgan Stanley 1.5 2.3
NLI Research 1.5 2.3
Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 1.5 2.3
JP Morgan 1.5 2.3
Dai-ichi Life Research 1.5 2.3
Goldman Sachs 1.5 2.3
Barclays Capital 1.4 2.3
Japan Research 1.4 2.3
Shinko 1.4 2.3
Calyon 1.4 2.3
Mitsubishibank n/a 2.2
Credit Suisse 1.5 2.2
Daiwa Research 1.4 2.2
Okasan Research n/a 2.1
Mitsubishi UFJ Research 1.4 2.1
Daiwa SB Investment 1.4 2.0
JOBS DATA
-- Japan's jobless rate hit a two-year high and the availability of jobs sank to a four-year low in August as worsening economic conditions hit firms' appetite to hire.
-- The jobs-to-applicants ratio for September was probably 0.85, meaning 85 jobs were available per 100 applicants, with forecasts from 32 economists ranging from 0.82 to 0.87.
-- The unemployment rate was seen staying flat from last month at 4.2 percent in September. But of 32 economists surveyed, 14 saw it rising to 4.3 percent and one forecast a rise to 4.4 percent.
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
-- Household spending has been sluggish as consumer sentiment has been deteriorating amid recession fears.
-- Forecasts from 28 economists ranged from a fall of 6.0 percent to a rise of 2.1 percent for household spending in September from the same month a year earlier.
-- Economists warn against reading too much into the data, saying the gauge of personal consumption is flawed due to bad sampling.
HOUSING STARTS
-- Housing starts in August marked their first annual rise since June 2007 when tighter building rules were adopted in the wake of a scandal over falsified safety data and hit the construction sector hard.
-- A poll of 30 economists produced a median forecast of a 50.8 percent rise in housing starts for September from a year earlier, with forecasts ranging from a rise of 57.5 percent to 43.8 percent.
(Reporting by Tokyo Economic Policy Desk) . ng COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.