WASHINGTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - An $825 billion stimulus bill aimed at reviving the U.S. economy presents an early test of President Barack Obama's vow to overcome partisan politics and forge consensus.
Following are scenarios on the political risks Obama and his fellow Democrats in Congress as well as Republican lawmakers face as they address the president's proposed package of new federal spending and tax cuts.
RISKS FOR OBAMA AND DEMOCRATIC-LED CONGRESS
With Democrats in control of both Congress and the White House for the first time since 1995, the stimulus package will be their initial major test.
If the package proves effective, eases a deepening recession and creates or saves millions of jobs, the new president will be crowned a political hero. The same goes for those who helped him turn the legislation into law.
If the package fails to jump-start the economy, a now adoring public may turn against Obama and he could face a tough time winning a second term in 2012.
Democrats in Congress could pay a price even sooner. The entire House of Representatives and a third of the 100-member Senate will be up for grabs in 2010. Unless the economy improves markedly, expect Republicans to gain seats in both chambers.
RISKS FOR OBAMA
Obama's main objective is to have the stimulus package passed by Congress, a task helped by Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.
He also needs a bipartisan consensus of Republicans and Democrats to pass it to bolster his image as a bridge builder.
Consensus will show voters that a campaign promise to end overly partisan politics is being fulfilled.
If not, it will be seen as evidence that partisan divisions defy Obama's ability to produce change, even during his so-called honeymoon period.
In his inaugural address, he said, 'The old stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply.'
Commentators are watching for attempts by Republicans to block the legislation through a filibuster in the Senate. Any sustained attempt to do so would be read as defiance.
Obama also risks angering Democratic allies if they perceive he works harder to satisfy Republican demands for a bigger component of tax cuts in the bill than Democratic objections.
RISKS FOR REPUBLICANS
Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner accused Democrats on Thursday of wanting to push the stimulus bill through without bothering to find common ground with Republicans.
Some Republicans also fear the bill, which Democratic leaders want passed by mid-February, is too big and is being pushed through too fast.
But Republicans want to avoid been seen as obstructing a bill that could revive the economy in a severe recession.
Their vote against former President George W. Bush's $700 billion bank bailout in October sent the stock market reeling and hurt the presidential bid of Republican John McCain.
Republicans also want to push for tax cuts and resist wanton government spending -- issues seen as core principles for their party.
If they are perceived as being overly cooperative with Democrats on those issues, they risk angering fiscally conservative supporters.
RISKS FOR DEMOCRATS
Democratic lawmakers must peacefully resolve differences within the economic package -- or risk riling members of their own party, particularly those pushing for more spending and fewer tax cuts or vice versa.
Democrats are under pressure to show that not only can they win power, but they can use it to improve the lives of everyday Americans.
(Writing by Matthew Bigg; Editing by Peter Cooney) Keywords: OBAMA STIMULUS/CONSENSUS (matt.bigg@reuters.com; +1 404 720-2891; Reuters Messaging: matt.bigg.reuters.com@reuters.net) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
Following are scenarios on the political risks Obama and his fellow Democrats in Congress as well as Republican lawmakers face as they address the president's proposed package of new federal spending and tax cuts.
RISKS FOR OBAMA AND DEMOCRATIC-LED CONGRESS
With Democrats in control of both Congress and the White House for the first time since 1995, the stimulus package will be their initial major test.
If the package proves effective, eases a deepening recession and creates or saves millions of jobs, the new president will be crowned a political hero. The same goes for those who helped him turn the legislation into law.
If the package fails to jump-start the economy, a now adoring public may turn against Obama and he could face a tough time winning a second term in 2012.
Democrats in Congress could pay a price even sooner. The entire House of Representatives and a third of the 100-member Senate will be up for grabs in 2010. Unless the economy improves markedly, expect Republicans to gain seats in both chambers.
RISKS FOR OBAMA
Obama's main objective is to have the stimulus package passed by Congress, a task helped by Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.
He also needs a bipartisan consensus of Republicans and Democrats to pass it to bolster his image as a bridge builder.
Consensus will show voters that a campaign promise to end overly partisan politics is being fulfilled.
If not, it will be seen as evidence that partisan divisions defy Obama's ability to produce change, even during his so-called honeymoon period.
In his inaugural address, he said, 'The old stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply.'
Commentators are watching for attempts by Republicans to block the legislation through a filibuster in the Senate. Any sustained attempt to do so would be read as defiance.
Obama also risks angering Democratic allies if they perceive he works harder to satisfy Republican demands for a bigger component of tax cuts in the bill than Democratic objections.
RISKS FOR REPUBLICANS
Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner accused Democrats on Thursday of wanting to push the stimulus bill through without bothering to find common ground with Republicans.
Some Republicans also fear the bill, which Democratic leaders want passed by mid-February, is too big and is being pushed through too fast.
But Republicans want to avoid been seen as obstructing a bill that could revive the economy in a severe recession.
Their vote against former President George W. Bush's $700 billion bank bailout in October sent the stock market reeling and hurt the presidential bid of Republican John McCain.
Republicans also want to push for tax cuts and resist wanton government spending -- issues seen as core principles for their party.
If they are perceived as being overly cooperative with Democrats on those issues, they risk angering fiscally conservative supporters.
RISKS FOR DEMOCRATS
Democratic lawmakers must peacefully resolve differences within the economic package -- or risk riling members of their own party, particularly those pushing for more spending and fewer tax cuts or vice versa.
Democrats are under pressure to show that not only can they win power, but they can use it to improve the lives of everyday Americans.
(Writing by Matthew Bigg; Editing by Peter Cooney) Keywords: OBAMA STIMULUS/CONSENSUS (matt.bigg@reuters.com; +1 404 720-2891; Reuters Messaging: matt.bigg.reuters.com@reuters.net) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.