NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut 247,000 jobs
in July, far less than expected and the least in any month
since last August, according to a government report on Friday
that provided the clearest evidence yet that the economy was
turning around.
Story: Table:
KEY POINTS: * With fewer workers being laid off, the unemployment rate eased to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5 percent the prior month, the Labor Department said, the first time the jobless rate had fallen since April 2008. * The government revised job losses for May and June to show 43,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported. * Analysts had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 320,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6 percent. The forecast was made earlier this week before other jobs data prompted some economists to lower their estimates for job losses.
COMMENTS: MAX BUBLITZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SCM ADVISORS, SAN FRANCISCO:
'This shows another piece in the puzzle that suggests the economy is getting slightly less worse --we're still losing a lot of jobs and at the end of the day, these data are prone to massive revisions. I do recall July tends to be the one of the months least impacted by the birth/death model, so that will take a little ammo away from people. All in all, this should be good for the stock market.'
BURT WHITE, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, LPL FINANCIAL, BOSTON:
'It surprised the Street, futures are really going to like it. I think it bodes very well. If you look at the trend we've been on on the employment front since January... we're moving in the right direction.
'You had great numbers from GDP and ISM, and now you have a good employment report. You mix those three together, these are the results the market wanted in validation.
'Now (recovery) is not just a theory, we're starting to see it manifest itself into employment, inventories and growth. We think that will ultimately manifest itself into a stock market that continues to move upwards.
This is the report and it did not disappoint.'
PIERRE ELLIS, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:
'Maybe the demand for labor has stopped crashing. This is in line or maybe ahead of expectations for progress on the economy. It will not take many more surprises like this before the world gets a lot more optimistic. Bonds fell on this news. The fall in the unemployment rate also weighed on bond prices.
'It's a real healthy improvement and even in the industries where employment looked less healthy, in many cases it's an offset to improvement the month before.
'The total number of hours worked was flat and that's the first non-negative month since August 2008.'
BRIAN DOLAN, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, FOREX.COM, BEDMINSTER, NEW JERSEY:
'Dollar/yen is going to be the most clear reflection of risk appetite. What the number suggests is that the employment situation is not nearly as dire as many people had feared. So this report supports the picture that the worst has past and that the employment situation is improving and this likely to support risk sentiment ahead.'
CHRIS JARVIS, SENIOR ANALYST, CAPROCK RISK MANAGEMENT, HAMPTON FALLS, NEW HAMPSHIRE:
'The jobs report was a mixed bag for crude traders. On the one hand it was good for fundamentals for people to be working and able to buy things; but it could mean that Europe will be seen as the lagging market and get people to short the euro and a stronger dollar longer term and put some pressure on commodities.'
ROBERT DYE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, PITTSBURGH:
'This is another indication that the economy is on an improving track and a confirmation that we're going to see a positive GDP number for the third quarter and we're going to be able to say that this recession ended in the third quarter of 2009.
'For the Fed, this is a confirmation that their policies, the various programs that they have to stimulate the economy are starting to engage.
'I do not think, though, that it necessarily shortens that period of extended low interest rates that we're in, because we're going to need to see several more months of data. This is just one month, and there have been many unique factors over the summer influencing these job numbers so we need to take a step back here and make sure we understand what the long-term trend is. But again, this is a very good number.'
LOU BRIEN, MARKET STRATEGIST, DRW TRADING GROUP, CHICAGO:
'Payrolls were better than expected, not quite reaching some of the whisper numbers but certainly the best we've had for months. An improvement across the board, still, losing 247,000 jobs in a month is not something you brag about, but this is still well below the average we've seen for the last nine months. The aggregate hours index, which tracks how long people are working at their jobs, was unchanged for the first time in quite a while -- that's been quite a drag on overall income.
'The Treasury market is getting hit on this data -- might make the supply a little harder to get rid of, but there has been very strong bidding at all of the auctions this year and I don't see any reason for that to change.'
Keywords: USA MARKETS/PAYROLLS
COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
Story: Table:
KEY POINTS: * With fewer workers being laid off, the unemployment rate eased to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5 percent the prior month, the Labor Department said, the first time the jobless rate had fallen since April 2008. * The government revised job losses for May and June to show 43,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported. * Analysts had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 320,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6 percent. The forecast was made earlier this week before other jobs data prompted some economists to lower their estimates for job losses.
COMMENTS: MAX BUBLITZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SCM ADVISORS, SAN FRANCISCO:
'This shows another piece in the puzzle that suggests the economy is getting slightly less worse --we're still losing a lot of jobs and at the end of the day, these data are prone to massive revisions. I do recall July tends to be the one of the months least impacted by the birth/death model, so that will take a little ammo away from people. All in all, this should be good for the stock market.'
BURT WHITE, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, LPL FINANCIAL, BOSTON:
'It surprised the Street, futures are really going to like it. I think it bodes very well. If you look at the trend we've been on on the employment front since January... we're moving in the right direction.
'You had great numbers from GDP and ISM, and now you have a good employment report. You mix those three together, these are the results the market wanted in validation.
'Now (recovery) is not just a theory, we're starting to see it manifest itself into employment, inventories and growth. We think that will ultimately manifest itself into a stock market that continues to move upwards.
This is the report and it did not disappoint.'
PIERRE ELLIS, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:
'Maybe the demand for labor has stopped crashing. This is in line or maybe ahead of expectations for progress on the economy. It will not take many more surprises like this before the world gets a lot more optimistic. Bonds fell on this news. The fall in the unemployment rate also weighed on bond prices.
'It's a real healthy improvement and even in the industries where employment looked less healthy, in many cases it's an offset to improvement the month before.
'The total number of hours worked was flat and that's the first non-negative month since August 2008.'
BRIAN DOLAN, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, FOREX.COM, BEDMINSTER, NEW JERSEY:
'Dollar/yen is going to be the most clear reflection of risk appetite. What the number suggests is that the employment situation is not nearly as dire as many people had feared. So this report supports the picture that the worst has past and that the employment situation is improving and this likely to support risk sentiment ahead.'
CHRIS JARVIS, SENIOR ANALYST, CAPROCK RISK MANAGEMENT, HAMPTON FALLS, NEW HAMPSHIRE:
'The jobs report was a mixed bag for crude traders. On the one hand it was good for fundamentals for people to be working and able to buy things; but it could mean that Europe will be seen as the lagging market and get people to short the euro and a stronger dollar longer term and put some pressure on commodities.'
ROBERT DYE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, PITTSBURGH:
'This is another indication that the economy is on an improving track and a confirmation that we're going to see a positive GDP number for the third quarter and we're going to be able to say that this recession ended in the third quarter of 2009.
'For the Fed, this is a confirmation that their policies, the various programs that they have to stimulate the economy are starting to engage.
'I do not think, though, that it necessarily shortens that period of extended low interest rates that we're in, because we're going to need to see several more months of data. This is just one month, and there have been many unique factors over the summer influencing these job numbers so we need to take a step back here and make sure we understand what the long-term trend is. But again, this is a very good number.'
LOU BRIEN, MARKET STRATEGIST, DRW TRADING GROUP, CHICAGO:
'Payrolls were better than expected, not quite reaching some of the whisper numbers but certainly the best we've had for months. An improvement across the board, still, losing 247,000 jobs in a month is not something you brag about, but this is still well below the average we've seen for the last nine months. The aggregate hours index, which tracks how long people are working at their jobs, was unchanged for the first time in quite a while -- that's been quite a drag on overall income.
'The Treasury market is getting hit on this data -- might make the supply a little harder to get rid of, but there has been very strong bidding at all of the auctions this year and I don't see any reason for that to change.'
Keywords: USA MARKETS/PAYROLLS
COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.