WELLINGTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - New Zealand retail sales rose slightly in the third quarter as the economy emerged slowly from recession, backing views that the central bank would keep interest rates on hold well into next year.
Sales volumes, which strip out price movements, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in the July to September period over the previous quarter, with core sales, excluding autos, up 0.5 percent, official data showed on Thursday.
A Reuters poll forecast no change in sales volumes.
'Overall there are no implications for the RBNZ (central bank) from this, it's consistent with them remaining on hold until the second half of next year,' said ANZ-National senior economist Khoon Goh.
The New Zealand dollar was unmoved by the data, staying anchored around $0.7390. Bank bill futures contracts were also unchanged.
New Zealand consumers have curbed their spending in the past year in the face of high interest rates, falling property prices, and rising food and fuel costs. The global financial crisis had exacerbated a domestic recession, with job losses rising.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has responded by slashing benchmark rates by 575 basis points since last July to a record low of 2.5 percent to help bring down borrowing costs to boost the economy.
While the third quarter data was slightly ahead of expectations, the value of September month seasonally adjusted sales rose by a lower than expected 0.2 percent, driven by clothing and vehicle sales. September core sales were flat against market estimates of a 0.4 percent rise.
Some indicators, including house prices and sales and consumer and business sentiment surveys, are suggesting the economy is recovering, although the labour market is seen as likely to deteriorate further.
Last month the RBNZ said it was in no hurry to raise its official rate, expecting to hold it at 2.50 percent until the second half of 2010.
But financial markets continue to price in a start to the tightening cycle as early as March, betting the strength of New Zealand's recovery will be quicker and stronger than the RBNZ has been forecasting.
Briscoe Group, which operates homeware and sports goods chains, said last month sales for the third quarter were 8.3 percent higher than a year ago, but said the sector remained competitive and volatile.
(Editing by Mark Bendeich)
((mantik.kusjanto@thomsonreuters.com; +64 4 471 4232;
Reuters Messaging: mantik.kusjanto.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: NEWZEALAND ECONOMY/RETAIL (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
Sales volumes, which strip out price movements, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in the July to September period over the previous quarter, with core sales, excluding autos, up 0.5 percent, official data showed on Thursday.
A Reuters poll forecast no change in sales volumes.
'Overall there are no implications for the RBNZ (central bank) from this, it's consistent with them remaining on hold until the second half of next year,' said ANZ-National senior economist Khoon Goh.
The New Zealand dollar was unmoved by the data, staying anchored around $0.7390. Bank bill futures contracts were also unchanged.
New Zealand consumers have curbed their spending in the past year in the face of high interest rates, falling property prices, and rising food and fuel costs. The global financial crisis had exacerbated a domestic recession, with job losses rising.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has responded by slashing benchmark rates by 575 basis points since last July to a record low of 2.5 percent to help bring down borrowing costs to boost the economy.
While the third quarter data was slightly ahead of expectations, the value of September month seasonally adjusted sales rose by a lower than expected 0.2 percent, driven by clothing and vehicle sales. September core sales were flat against market estimates of a 0.4 percent rise.
Some indicators, including house prices and sales and consumer and business sentiment surveys, are suggesting the economy is recovering, although the labour market is seen as likely to deteriorate further.
Last month the RBNZ said it was in no hurry to raise its official rate, expecting to hold it at 2.50 percent until the second half of 2010.
But financial markets continue to price in a start to the tightening cycle as early as March, betting the strength of New Zealand's recovery will be quicker and stronger than the RBNZ has been forecasting.
Briscoe Group, which operates homeware and sports goods chains, said last month sales for the third quarter were 8.3 percent higher than a year ago, but said the sector remained competitive and volatile.
(Editing by Mark Bendeich)
((mantik.kusjanto@thomsonreuters.com; +64 4 471 4232;
Reuters Messaging: mantik.kusjanto.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: NEWZEALAND ECONOMY/RETAIL (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.