WHAT: Jan industrial output, Feb trade, Feb CPI
WHEN: Trade at 0000 GMT, March 1
CPI at 0430 GMT, March 2
Industrial output at 0430 GMT, March 3
(Repeats ahead of tradedata on March 1)
REUTERS FORECASTS:
February exports growth (pct y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+22.7 +18.3 to +30.0 9 +46.7
February imports growth (pct y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+35.7 +31.2 to +45.7 9 +26.4
February consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+2.9 y/y +2.5 to +3.0 y/y 10 +3.1 y/y
+0.5 m/m +0.2 to +0.6 m/m 9 +0.4 m/m
(month-on-month growth not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
January industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+37.2 y/y +29.2 to +43.0 y/y 9 +33.9 y/y
+0.4 m/m -3.6 to +1.4 m/m 10 +3.5 m/m
(month-on-month growth adjusted for seasonal patterns)
FACTORS TO WATCH:
- Annual growth in exports in February will likely slow mainly due to fewer working days than a year earlier. Analysts will pay close attention to the average export value per working day for clues on the monthly export performance.
- Annual consumer inflation is seen slowing in February after hitting a 9-month high in January, when the spike in inflation was attributed mainly to the impact of unusually heavy snowfalls.
- Seasonally adjusted monthly factory output growth in January is seen down in line with weaker-than-expected exports, making investors focus more on any other clues in the output report such as leading indicators.
MARKET IMPACT:
- The figures come as investors have pushed back expectations for an early interest rate increase by the Bank of Korea after other weak data, such as the fourth-quarter economic growth figures, raised concerns about the economic recovery. Market watchers now do not expect the first rate rise until the second half of the year.
- Given a depressed sentiment on various fronts and global financial market instability over sovereign debt problems in Greece, the impact from any surprisingly strong reading in one or more of the three indicators could be limited.
- But a surprising pick-up in the consumer inflation above the January reading could seriously hurt bond prices by lifting the case for an early interest rate increase.
- Currency, stock and bond investors are also more keen on global market factors such as reforms in the U.S. financial regulatory regime and China's credit controls.
- To track South Korean economic data, click on.
(Reporting by Cheon Jong-woo and Lee Eun-yul; Editing by Yoo Choonsik & Kim Coghill)
((jongwoo.cheon@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5665; Reuters Messaging;jongwoo.cheon.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/ (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
WHEN: Trade at 0000 GMT, March 1
CPI at 0430 GMT, March 2
Industrial output at 0430 GMT, March 3
(Repeats ahead of tradedata on March 1)
REUTERS FORECASTS:
February exports growth (pct y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+22.7 +18.3 to +30.0 9 +46.7
February imports growth (pct y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+35.7 +31.2 to +45.7 9 +26.4
February consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+2.9 y/y +2.5 to +3.0 y/y 10 +3.1 y/y
+0.5 m/m +0.2 to +0.6 m/m 9 +0.4 m/m
(month-on-month growth not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
January industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+37.2 y/y +29.2 to +43.0 y/y 9 +33.9 y/y
+0.4 m/m -3.6 to +1.4 m/m 10 +3.5 m/m
(month-on-month growth adjusted for seasonal patterns)
FACTORS TO WATCH:
- Annual growth in exports in February will likely slow mainly due to fewer working days than a year earlier. Analysts will pay close attention to the average export value per working day for clues on the monthly export performance.
- Annual consumer inflation is seen slowing in February after hitting a 9-month high in January, when the spike in inflation was attributed mainly to the impact of unusually heavy snowfalls.
- Seasonally adjusted monthly factory output growth in January is seen down in line with weaker-than-expected exports, making investors focus more on any other clues in the output report such as leading indicators.
MARKET IMPACT:
- The figures come as investors have pushed back expectations for an early interest rate increase by the Bank of Korea after other weak data, such as the fourth-quarter economic growth figures, raised concerns about the economic recovery. Market watchers now do not expect the first rate rise until the second half of the year.
- Given a depressed sentiment on various fronts and global financial market instability over sovereign debt problems in Greece, the impact from any surprisingly strong reading in one or more of the three indicators could be limited.
- But a surprising pick-up in the consumer inflation above the January reading could seriously hurt bond prices by lifting the case for an early interest rate increase.
- Currency, stock and bond investors are also more keen on global market factors such as reforms in the U.S. financial regulatory regime and China's credit controls.
- To track South Korean economic data, click on.
(Reporting by Cheon Jong-woo and Lee Eun-yul; Editing by Yoo Choonsik & Kim Coghill)
((jongwoo.cheon@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5665; Reuters Messaging;jongwoo.cheon.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/ (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.