(Repeats ahead of factory output data release)
* WHAT: Oct industrial output, Nov trade, Nov CPI
* WHEN: Output at 8 a.m., Nov 30 (2300 GMT, Nov 29
* - CPI 8 a.m., Dec 1 (2300 GMT, Nov 30
* - Trade around 9 a.m. (0000 GMT), Dec 1
(For full poll, double-click)
October industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
14.8 y/y 8.7 to 17.5 12 3.9 y/y
0.8 m/m -1.5 to 3.8 12
0.4 m/m
(month-on-month change adjusted for seasonal patterns)
November export growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
23.8 18.4 to 25.6 11 27.6
November import growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
24.2 20.0 to 33.7 11 21.3
November consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
3.7 y/y 3.5 to 3.9 12 4.1 y/y
-0.2 m/m -0.4 to 0.3 12 0.2 m/m
(month-on-month change not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
*revised
FACTORS TO WATCH
- After a six months of expansion, industrial output shrank in August and September as the pace of the global recovery moderated and financial instability in Europe hurt consumer sentiment.
- The Reuters poll suggests industrial output expanded in October. But an HSBC/Markit survey released on Nov. 1 showed the sector shrank at its fastest pace since February 2009 as new export orders fell, although similar surveys showed major economies improving.
MARKET IMPACT
- The chances of the central bank following up November's rate rise with a December rate rise are low and data broadly in line with expectations will not change that outlook. The central bank will need time to assess the effect on the economy of the November rate increase, while debt problems in Europe and an exchange of artillery fire with North Korea point to some policy caution.¦
- A stronger reading in the data would still influence short- to medium-term bonds, although the won is mostly focused on tensions with North Korea.
- A Reuters survey conducted after the 25 basis point interest rate increase to 2.5 percent on Nov. 16 showed analysts expect the central bank to next raise the 7-day repurchases agreement rate in the first quarter of the next year.
(Reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Editing by Yoo Choonsik and Neil Fullick)
((jongwoo.cheon@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5665; Reuters
Messaging;jongwoo.cheon.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
* WHAT: Oct industrial output, Nov trade, Nov CPI
* WHEN: Output at 8 a.m., Nov 30 (2300 GMT, Nov 29
* - CPI 8 a.m., Dec 1 (2300 GMT, Nov 30
* - Trade around 9 a.m. (0000 GMT), Dec 1
(For full poll, double-click)
October industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
14.8 y/y 8.7 to 17.5 12 3.9 y/y
0.8 m/m -1.5 to 3.8 12
0.4 m/m
(month-on-month change adjusted for seasonal patterns)
November export growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
23.8 18.4 to 25.6 11 27.6
November import growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
24.2 20.0 to 33.7 11 21.3
November consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
3.7 y/y 3.5 to 3.9 12 4.1 y/y
-0.2 m/m -0.4 to 0.3 12 0.2 m/m
(month-on-month change not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
*revised
FACTORS TO WATCH
- After a six months of expansion, industrial output shrank in August and September as the pace of the global recovery moderated and financial instability in Europe hurt consumer sentiment.
- The Reuters poll suggests industrial output expanded in October. But an HSBC/Markit survey released on Nov. 1 showed the sector shrank at its fastest pace since February 2009 as new export orders fell, although similar surveys showed major economies improving.
MARKET IMPACT
- The chances of the central bank following up November's rate rise with a December rate rise are low and data broadly in line with expectations will not change that outlook. The central bank will need time to assess the effect on the economy of the November rate increase, while debt problems in Europe and an exchange of artillery fire with North Korea point to some policy caution.¦
- A stronger reading in the data would still influence short- to medium-term bonds, although the won is mostly focused on tensions with North Korea.
- A Reuters survey conducted after the 25 basis point interest rate increase to 2.5 percent on Nov. 16 showed analysts expect the central bank to next raise the 7-day repurchases agreement rate in the first quarter of the next year.
(Reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Editing by Yoo Choonsik and Neil Fullick)
((jongwoo.cheon@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5665; Reuters
Messaging;jongwoo.cheon.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.