(Repeats earlier story without changes to text.)
(For full poll, double-click)
* WHAT: Nov industrial output, Dec CPI, Dec trade
* WHEN: Output at 8 a.m. on Dec 30 (2300 GMT, Dec 29)
CPI at 8 a.m. on Dec 31 (2300 GMT, Dec 30)
Trade at around 9 a.m. (0000 GMT) on Jan 1, 2011
November industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
10.6 y/y 6.7 to 13.0 9 13.5
1.3 m/m -2.0 to 5.5 8
4.2
(month-on-month change adjusted for seasonal patterns)
December consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
3.2 y/y 3.0 to 3.4 9 3.3
0.3 m/m -0.1 to 0.4 9
0.6
(month-on-month change not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
December export growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
19.1 16.1 to 23.6 8 21.5
December import growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
20.4 18.5 to 25.0 8 30.8
* Revised
FACTORS TO WATCH
- Industrial output had decreased for the past three consecutive months and in October suffered its fastest monthly fall in nearly two years as global demand cooled.
- The central bank has said annual consumer inflation would stay above 3 percent -- the middle of the central bank's target range for 2010-2012 -- for a considerable period.
- Export growth has been showing a moderating trend aS demand from the advanced economies remained depressed due to still high unemployment and fading effects from stimulus spending.
MARKET IMPACT
- Higher-than-expected inflation may hurt bond prices by increasing the chances for additional interest rate increases in early 2011 despite heightened tensions with North Korea after Pyongyang's heavy shelling of a South Korean island in late November.
- A reversal in industrial output declines will also weigh on bonds, supporting the view that the central bank would raise interest rates further in early 2011 to ease inflation pressure.
- Higher export growth than expected will help the won further recover after it was hit by reduced risk preference among global traders because of Europe's debt crisis and heightened tensions with North Korea.
(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee; Editing by Yoo Choonsik)
((yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5646; Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/ (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
(For full poll, double-click)
* WHAT: Nov industrial output, Dec CPI, Dec trade
* WHEN: Output at 8 a.m. on Dec 30 (2300 GMT, Dec 29)
CPI at 8 a.m. on Dec 31 (2300 GMT, Dec 30)
Trade at around 9 a.m. (0000 GMT) on Jan 1, 2011
November industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
10.6 y/y 6.7 to 13.0 9 13.5
1.3 m/m -2.0 to 5.5 8
4.2
(month-on-month change adjusted for seasonal patterns)
December consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
3.2 y/y 3.0 to 3.4 9 3.3
0.3 m/m -0.1 to 0.4 9
0.6
(month-on-month change not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
December export growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
19.1 16.1 to 23.6 8 21.5
December import growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
20.4 18.5 to 25.0 8 30.8
* Revised
FACTORS TO WATCH
- Industrial output had decreased for the past three consecutive months and in October suffered its fastest monthly fall in nearly two years as global demand cooled.
- The central bank has said annual consumer inflation would stay above 3 percent -- the middle of the central bank's target range for 2010-2012 -- for a considerable period.
- Export growth has been showing a moderating trend aS demand from the advanced economies remained depressed due to still high unemployment and fading effects from stimulus spending.
MARKET IMPACT
- Higher-than-expected inflation may hurt bond prices by increasing the chances for additional interest rate increases in early 2011 despite heightened tensions with North Korea after Pyongyang's heavy shelling of a South Korean island in late November.
- A reversal in industrial output declines will also weigh on bonds, supporting the view that the central bank would raise interest rates further in early 2011 to ease inflation pressure.
- Higher export growth than expected will help the won further recover after it was hit by reduced risk preference among global traders because of Europe's debt crisis and heightened tensions with North Korea.
(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee; Editing by Yoo Choonsik)
((yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5646; Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/ (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.