(Repeats ahead of December industrial output release)
(For full poll, double-click)
* WHAT: Dec industrial output, Jan CPI, Jan trade
* WHEN: Output at 8 a.m. Jan 31 (2300 GMT, Jan 30)
CPI at 8 a.m. Feb 1 (2300 GMT, Jan 31)
Trade at around 9 a.m. Feb 1 (0000 GMT)
December industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+10.1 y/y 7.7 to 10.9 15 10.4
+2.0 m/m 0.1 to 3.7 13 1.4
(month-on-month change adjusted for seasonal patterns)
January consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+3.9 y/y 3.6 to 4.4 15 3.5
+0.7 m/m 0.4 to 1.2 15 0.6
(month-on-month change not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
January export growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
+41.25 25.0 to 54.5 13 22.6
January import growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
+28.45 22.9 to 30.0 12 21.7
* Revised
FACTORS TO WATCH
- Industrial production in December probably grew at a faster pace than in November on a month-on-month basis, with exports on the increase and retail sales seeing double-digit growth, underscoring a solid recovery in Asia's No.4 economy.
- Export growth in January will handily top the preceding month's level, as customs data showed exports in the first 20 days of January jumped 55.9 percent, with the U.S. economy showing signs of a faster-than-expected recovery.
- Annual consumer price inflation may approach 4 percent in January driven by soaring oil and food prices. It ran up to a
20
month high of 4.1 percent in October, deviating from the central bank's medium-term target band of 2-4 percent.
- Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo said in late January that better-than-expected U.S. economic growth would provide a further boost to the domestic economy, though a central bank official later cautioned that that scenario would also add to demand-side inflationary pressure.
- The Bank of Korea has forecast consumer inflation to accelerate to 3.7 percent in the first half of 2011 and to average 3.5 percent for the year, versus last year's actual print of 2.9 percent.
- But a run-up in meat prices due to outbreaks of foot-and-mouth diseases in livestock and expectations for a stronger U.S. recovery were not reflected in the forecasts announced on Dec. 10, 2010. That would mean the central bank is highly likely to revise upwards both inflation and growth forecasts in its official review in April.
- President Lee Myung-bak said on Monday the governmentwould achieve 2011 consumer inflation and economic growth targets of 3 percent and 5 percent, respectively, by year's end.
MARKET IMPACT
- Brisk exports and higher inflation readings may stoke expectations that the Bank of Korea could bring forward its next tightening step to February from the market consensus of March, driving the won higher while hitting treasury prices.
- The South Korean stock market, which leapt to an all-time high in late January, may extend its gains in response to upbeat exports data, given that major exporters such as Samsung and Hyundai represent heavy weightings in the composite index.
- Bond markets may react to whether leading and coincident composite indexes included in December industrial output data will cap their losing trend seen in the past few months on a monthly basis. Both sets of data are taken as forward-looking indicators to gauge the economic activity of following months.
(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee; Editing by Kim Coghill)
((yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5646; Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/ (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
(For full poll, double-click)
* WHAT: Dec industrial output, Jan CPI, Jan trade
* WHEN: Output at 8 a.m. Jan 31 (2300 GMT, Jan 30)
CPI at 8 a.m. Feb 1 (2300 GMT, Jan 31)
Trade at around 9 a.m. Feb 1 (0000 GMT)
December industrial output growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+10.1 y/y 7.7 to 10.9 15 10.4
+2.0 m/m 0.1 to 3.7 13 1.4
(month-on-month change adjusted for seasonal patterns)
January consumer price index growth (pct)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS PRIOR
+3.9 y/y 3.6 to 4.4 15 3.5
+0.7 m/m 0.4 to 1.2 15 0.6
(month-on-month change not adjusted for seasonal patterns)
January export growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
+41.25 25.0 to 54.5 13 22.6
January import growth (pct, y/y)
MEDIAN RANGE RESPONDENTS *PRIOR
+28.45 22.9 to 30.0 12 21.7
* Revised
FACTORS TO WATCH
- Industrial production in December probably grew at a faster pace than in November on a month-on-month basis, with exports on the increase and retail sales seeing double-digit growth, underscoring a solid recovery in Asia's No.4 economy.
- Export growth in January will handily top the preceding month's level, as customs data showed exports in the first 20 days of January jumped 55.9 percent, with the U.S. economy showing signs of a faster-than-expected recovery.
- Annual consumer price inflation may approach 4 percent in January driven by soaring oil and food prices. It ran up to a
20
month high of 4.1 percent in October, deviating from the central bank's medium-term target band of 2-4 percent.
- Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo said in late January that better-than-expected U.S. economic growth would provide a further boost to the domestic economy, though a central bank official later cautioned that that scenario would also add to demand-side inflationary pressure.
- The Bank of Korea has forecast consumer inflation to accelerate to 3.7 percent in the first half of 2011 and to average 3.5 percent for the year, versus last year's actual print of 2.9 percent.
- But a run-up in meat prices due to outbreaks of foot-and-mouth diseases in livestock and expectations for a stronger U.S. recovery were not reflected in the forecasts announced on Dec. 10, 2010. That would mean the central bank is highly likely to revise upwards both inflation and growth forecasts in its official review in April.
- President Lee Myung-bak said on Monday the governmentwould achieve 2011 consumer inflation and economic growth targets of 3 percent and 5 percent, respectively, by year's end.
MARKET IMPACT
- Brisk exports and higher inflation readings may stoke expectations that the Bank of Korea could bring forward its next tightening step to February from the market consensus of March, driving the won higher while hitting treasury prices.
- The South Korean stock market, which leapt to an all-time high in late January, may extend its gains in response to upbeat exports data, given that major exporters such as Samsung and Hyundai represent heavy weightings in the composite index.
- Bond markets may react to whether leading and coincident composite indexes included in December industrial output data will cap their losing trend seen in the past few months on a monthly basis. Both sets of data are taken as forward-looking indicators to gauge the economic activity of following months.
(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee; Editing by Kim Coghill)
((yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5646; Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/ (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.