WHAT: Peru's economic growth rate for March
WHEN: Monday, May 16, at about 11 a.m. local time (noon EDT, 1600 GMT)
REUTERS FORECAST: Peru's economy will have grown 7.9 percent in March compared with 8.9 percent in the same month a year earlier and 8.5 percent in February, according to the median forecast in a Reuters survey. The individual estimates of nine economists surveyed ranged from 6.5 percent to 8.6 percent growth.
FACTORS TO WATCH: Analysts said Peru's China-paced economic growth likely slowed in March due to uncertainty ahead of the first round of a presidential election held on April 10. Credicorp, Peru's largest financial holding company, has said lending activity decreased as a result. Left-wing nationalist Ollanta Humala won the first round and is now tied with right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori in a June 5 run-off. Peru's stocks and currencies plunged on Humala's rise despite his pledges to manage the economy prudently. In 2010, Peru's economy expanded 8.8 percent, among the world's fastest rates as construction and lending surpassed the traditional growth engine of mining exports. The central bank forecasts economic growth of 7 percent in 2011.
MARKET IMPACT: Limited. Peru's central bank on May 12 raised its benchmark interest rate for the fifth straight month, to 4.25 percent in a bid to get escalating inflation back within its 1 to 3 percent target range. Strong growth, an open economy and the potential of a higher return have lured investment to Peru, contributing to gains in the country's sol currency. The sol traded at its strongest level since May 2008 on Friday, benefiting from the previous day's rate hike as investors bet Fujimori, who is seen as more friendly to business, would win the election after two polls gave her a narrow lead in the tight race.
Analysts remain upbeat about Peru's strong economic fundamentals. Moody's rating agency has said it may upgrade Peru's credit rating after the election and 'does not believe an anti-system candidate could derail Peru's current economic path.' For details, see
The data will be released by the government statistics agency INEI (http://www.inei.gob.pe/).
(Reporting by Ursula Scollo. Writing by Caroline Stauffer, editing by Gary Crosse) Keywords: PERU ECONOMY/GROWTH (caroline.stauffer@thomsonreuters.com; Tel: +51-1-221-2130; Reuters Messaging: caroline.stauffer.reuters.com@reuters.net) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
WHEN: Monday, May 16, at about 11 a.m. local time (noon EDT, 1600 GMT)
REUTERS FORECAST: Peru's economy will have grown 7.9 percent in March compared with 8.9 percent in the same month a year earlier and 8.5 percent in February, according to the median forecast in a Reuters survey. The individual estimates of nine economists surveyed ranged from 6.5 percent to 8.6 percent growth.
FACTORS TO WATCH: Analysts said Peru's China-paced economic growth likely slowed in March due to uncertainty ahead of the first round of a presidential election held on April 10. Credicorp, Peru's largest financial holding company, has said lending activity decreased as a result. Left-wing nationalist Ollanta Humala won the first round and is now tied with right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori in a June 5 run-off. Peru's stocks and currencies plunged on Humala's rise despite his pledges to manage the economy prudently. In 2010, Peru's economy expanded 8.8 percent, among the world's fastest rates as construction and lending surpassed the traditional growth engine of mining exports. The central bank forecasts economic growth of 7 percent in 2011.
MARKET IMPACT: Limited. Peru's central bank on May 12 raised its benchmark interest rate for the fifth straight month, to 4.25 percent in a bid to get escalating inflation back within its 1 to 3 percent target range. Strong growth, an open economy and the potential of a higher return have lured investment to Peru, contributing to gains in the country's sol currency. The sol traded at its strongest level since May 2008 on Friday, benefiting from the previous day's rate hike as investors bet Fujimori, who is seen as more friendly to business, would win the election after two polls gave her a narrow lead in the tight race.
Analysts remain upbeat about Peru's strong economic fundamentals. Moody's rating agency has said it may upgrade Peru's credit rating after the election and 'does not believe an anti-system candidate could derail Peru's current economic path.' For details, see
The data will be released by the government statistics agency INEI (http://www.inei.gob.pe/).
(Reporting by Ursula Scollo. Writing by Caroline Stauffer, editing by Gary Crosse) Keywords: PERU ECONOMY/GROWTH (caroline.stauffer@thomsonreuters.com; Tel: +51-1-221-2130; Reuters Messaging: caroline.stauffer.reuters.com@reuters.net) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.