Parliament's vote on 29 January delivered one clear message - Parliament opposes a "no deal" Brexit but it was not ready to delay Brexit. This underscored the combined success of the Brady and the Spelman amendment among the 7 others that were tabled by the speaker John Bercow. The Brady amendment seeks to remove the most controversial part of the Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) - the Irish Backstop. The border that runs for 500km separating the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland has been one of the biggest sticking points during the Brexit negotiations. The Spelman amendment clarifies that a majority exists within the House of Commons that favour avoiding a disorderly Brexit. The other two important amendments that were defeated - Cooper (sought an extension of Article 50) and Grieve (sought to gain more time for alternative Brexit options).
The Irish backstop
The new negotiating objectives under the Brady amendment conflict with the red lines laid down by Theresa May. The UK's current red lines include - (1) leaving the EU's customs union (2) maintaining an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and (3) keeping frictionless trade with the UK's continental partners. An agreement on the backstop is key because it is a safety net that will apply to the Irish border after Britain leaves the EU. This backstop is designed around British red lines, ensures maintaining cross-border cooperation, supporting the all-island economy and protecting the Good Friday peace agreement. Under May's current deal Northern Ireland would stay aligned to some rules of the EU single market, if another solution cannot be found by the end of the transition period in December 2020. This would mean goods coming into Northern Ireland would be subject to additional checks to maintain compliance with EU standards. This has remained the main contention of MPs owing to concerns the UK would continue to follow EU rules for an indefinite time without having any mechanism to withdraw unilaterally from it. The backstop has also been opposed by the DUP, a Northern Ireland unionist party, that declined to accept any additional Northern Ireland only checks as it could threaten the integrity of the union. Unless the British red lines were to change in terms of their approach to the Customs Union and the Single market, we are unlikely to see the EU changing their approach to the backstop.
Figure 1: The UK-Ireland border
What's next?
Theresa May now faces the uphill task of returning ...
