30.11.2022 -
Ausgewählte Statements
- "Die Kerninflation liegt unverändert bei fünf Prozent im Jahresvergleich, doch ist es noch zu früh, um eine entscheidende Wende bei den Inflationsaussichten zu signalisieren. Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass diese Zahlen die Position der EZB für die Dezember-Sitzung ändern werden."
- "Unser Basisszenario geht von einer Erhöhung der EZB-Leitzinsen um plus 50 Basispunkte auf 2,0 Prozent aus, mit einer "hawkischen" Tendenz, die sich entweder in der zukünftigen Zinsentwicklung und/oder in den Richtlinien für eine quantitative Straffung manifestieren könnte."
- "Mit Blick auf die Zukunft können wir nicht sagen, dass der Druck auf die Energiepreise vorbei ist. Die derzeit niedrigeren Ölpreise spiegeln wahrscheinlich die geringere Nachfrage aus China wider, während die Preisobergrenze bzw. das Embargo für russische Rohöl- und Raffinerieprodukte zu unsicher ist, als dass sie nicht zu Verzerrungen und Aufwärtsrisiken bei den Preisen führen könnte."
- "Wir gehen weiterhin davon aus, dass die Inflation im Dienstleistungssektor in den kommenden Monaten anziehen wird, da die Nachfrage widerstandsfähiger ist als erwartet (Arbeitsmarkt, Löhne)."
- "Die Weitergabe der vergangenen Erzeugerpreiserhöhungen bleibt unvollständig, und wir rechnen mit weiterem Aufwärtsdruck, aber wir glauben, dass es für die Hersteller schwieriger sein wird, in den kommenden Monaten weiterhin signifikante Erhöhungen weiterzugeben, da die Engpässe nachlassen und der EUR/USD-Kurs steigt. Die Ungewissheit über die künftigen Energiepreise bleibt jedoch ein Risiko."
- "Insgesamt ist nach vier Monaten mit einem beeindruckenden Anstieg der Kernrate eine Stabilisierung eine gute Nachricht, aber wir halten einen Rückschlag im Dezember für sehr wahrscheinlich. Die Abschwächung der Kernrate dürfte erst zu Beginn des nächsten Jahres einsetzen, wenn die Lage bei den Energiepreisen unverändert bleibt."
- "Wir glauben, dass die Preise für verarbeitete Lebensmittel in den kommenden Monaten weiterhin nach oben tendieren werden, da die Hersteller den Anstieg der Inputkosten nicht vollständig weitergegeben haben, während der Aufwärtsdruck durch die Arbeitskosten allmählich zum Tragen kommen wird."
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Eurozone reaction: Inflation Review - Unconvinced such disinflationary trends are to stay- A surprising decline in EMU HICP headline (-0.6pp to 10% y/y), but mostly driven by energy prices in specific countries (Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium).
- Core inflation is unchanged at 5% y/y though to too soon to signal any decisive pivot on inflation outlook yet. This print is unlikely to change ECB's position for December meeting. Our base case is for a +50bps DFR hike to 2.0%, with a hawkish tilt that may materialize in either future path of interest rates and/or high-level guidelines for quantitative tightening.
Summary
EMU HICP headline surprised on the downside and reached 10% y/y from 10.6% y/y in October (consensus: 10.4% / AXA IM: 10.5%). Most of the decline came from energy (-1.9% m/m; 34.9% y/y from 41.5% in October). Core inflation was unchanged at 5% y/y (consensus: 5%; AXA IM: 5.1%). Looking at the limited details available , we believe this print has been slightly biased by seasonal factors. As expected, food prices continue to rise at a sustained pace (+0.9% m/m; 13.6% y/y from 13.1% in October).
This print is unlikely to alter meaningfully ECB's Governing Council's position for the December meeting as there is insufficient proof (core) inflation has reached a peak.
Energy: Prices decline are not broad based
We had highlighted significant uncertainty in energy prices and we have not been disappointed… If fuel prices slightly decline everywhere, the bulk of it came from gas and electricity prices as spot markets eased since the summer. Timing of such decline was uncertain and this explained a large part of the downside surprise: Spain came at 6.6% y/y from 7.3%, the Netherlands HICP at 11.2% y/y from 16.8% and Belgium at 10.5% y/y from 13.1% (0.55 over 0.6 percentage point decline from headline inflation in October). In Germany and Italy, gas and electricity prices continued to increase. Looking forward, we would not be comfortable saying pressure on energy prices has ended. Current lower oil prices probably reflect lower demand from China while price cap/embargo on Russian crude/refined products is too uncertain not to create distortions and upside risks on prices. The OPEC's adjustment to global supply will also key to monitor. Then, we are not yet in winter and we see more upside than downside risks on gas (and electricity) prices, especially if LNG supplies are not diversified enough (cf debate on US LNG). Then, current debate on whether adopting a price cap on gas and at which level does not provide much more visibility.
Core: A deceptive stabilization
EMU core HICP was flat at 5% y/y (0% mom) but extracting a signal for a pivot is inconclusive. Seasonal factors such as (German) package holidays have probably distorted services inflation which came at 4.2% y/y (-0.1pp from October; -0.3% on the month). In fact, regional German CPI data disclose a more significant discount than usual, possibly from the black Friday event. We continue to believe services inflation will edge up in the coming months as demand is more resilient than anticipated (labor market, wages).
Non energy industrial goods stabilized at 6.1% y/y but monthly change remains robust in regards to previous years at the same period (0.4% m/m against 0.2% in average since 2017). Passthrough from past producer prices increase remains incomplete and we expect additional upward pressure but we believe it is going to be harder for manufacturers to continue passing significant increases in coming months with easing bottlenecks, higher EURUSD. Uncertainty on future energy prices remain a risk though.
Overall, after four months of impressive rise on core, a stabilization is good news but we think that a rebound in December is very likely. Core deceleration should only start from the beginning of next year if situation is unchanged on energy prices front.
Food: Less surprising but still impressive print
As expected, food prices continued to rise (13.6% y/y from 13.1% in October), boosted by processed food while fresh food eased (13.8% y/y from 15.5%). The pattern is common across countries, at least from what we read in domestic statistical office press releases. We believe processed food remains tilted to the upside in the coming months as manufacturers didn't fully pass the rise in input cost while upside pressure from labor cost will start to materialize.
