15.09.2023 -
Ausgewählte Statements:
"Mit der Anhebung der Leitzinsen auf vier Prozent, signalisiert die EZB überraschenderweise, dass der Höchststand des Leitzinses erreicht ist. Die EZB argumentiert mit einer dovishen Anhebung. Wir sind nicht der Meinung, dass das alles wirklich dovish ist"
"Wir stimmen der Interpretation einer dovishen Anhebung nicht zu. Erstens, da EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde eingehend sowohl die Bedeutung des "aktuellen Zinssatzes" als auch dessen zeitlicher Perspektive erläuterte und ausdrücklich betonte, dass die Möglichkeit weiterer Zinserhöhungen bestehen bleibt, abhängig von den Daten. Zweitens schien die "zügige Erreichung" des Inflationsziels von zwei Prozent eine Schlüsselrolle zu spielen. Das dürfte vermutlich aufgrund der nach oben revidierten Kerninflationsrate, die sich bis ins kommende Jahr erstreckt, als notwendig erachtet worden sein. Entsprechend den neuesten EZB-Prognosen wird die Inflation im letzten Quartal 2025 voraussichtlich wieder unter das angestrebte Ziel fallen. Dieser Zeitpunkt scheint für Präsidentin Lagarde eher ungünstig zu sein. Drittens wurde die restliche Zinsprognose unverändert gelassen. Lagarde betonte außerdem die Bedeutung datenabhängiger Entscheidungen und die zeitliche Kohärenz ihrer Einschätzung, basierend auf aktuellen Daten."
"Wir erwarten keine weiteren Änderungen der EZB-Leitzinsen vor dem Sommer 2024. Dann werden wahrscheinlich Zinssenkungen ins Auge gefasst. In der Zwischenzeit wird sich der geldpolitische Fokus unseres Erachtens auf die EZB-Bilanz und auf die PEPP-Reinvestitionspolitik verlagern. Wir gehen davon aus, dass die Diskussionen darüber bald beginnen werden, eine Entscheidung aber frühestens auf der Dezember-Sitzung fällt."
"In Bezug auf die Preise erwarten wir eine Inflationsrate von 5,6 Prozent im Jahr 2023 und 3,2 Prozent im Jahr 2024 (jeweils +0,2 Prozentpunkte) aufgrund höherer Energiepreise. Unsere Prognose für 2024 unterscheidet sich von der der EZB, da wir nur 2,7 Prozent erwarten."
"Die Finanzmärkte waren zwischen der geldpolitischen Erklärung der EZB und der Pressekonferenz recht volatil. Die geldpolitische Entscheidung löste eine rasche Erholung der Anleihen aus, wobei alle Laufzeiten über drei Jahre etwa fünf bis sieben Basispunkte verloren. Die Aktienmärkte haben die jüngste Entscheidung offenbar als Wendepunkt in der hawkishen Haltung der EZB interpretiert. Der Eurostoxx 600 steigt zum Zeitpunkt der Erstellung dieses Berichts um 1,4 Prozent. EURUSD schwächt sich ab (-0,5 Prozent) und liegt jetzt bei 1,066."
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Hugo Le Damany, Economist und François Cabau, Senior Eurozone Economist, AXA Investment Managers: Macroeconomic Research: ECB review - Being and staying in the zone
- The ECB Governing Council (GC) decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25bps, bringing the depo rate (DFR) to 4.0%, in line with our above consensus expectation (Refinitiv: 3.75%).
- GC surprisingly made explicit peak policy rate has been reached, making it a dovish hike. We disagree it is all that dovish.
- Our baseline foresees no more changes to ECB interest rates before cuts are envisaged in the summer of 2024, broadly in line with market pricing. Policy discussion to turn to adequate ways of reducing faster ECB's balance sheet.
- Market reaction has been volatile probably skewed by the perception of initial dovish tilt, thereafter rebalanced.
The ECB GC decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25bps in September, bringing the DFR and main refinancing rate to 4.0% and 4.5% respectively, in line with our above consensus expectations (Refinitiv: 3.75% and 4.25%). Also in line with our expectations, the monetary policy decision statement kept the same wording from past decisions " inflation expected to remain too high for too long". Although headline and core inflation forecasts have been revised down, they are projected to remain above 2% in 2025 at 2.1% and 2.2% respectively. Going into the meeting, we acknowledged the high uncertainty surrounding today's decision, reflected in market drawn to a broad 50/50 split. Unsurprisingly, President Lagarde reported that only a "solid majority" of GC members agreed to the hike.
GC is increasingly comfortable with inflation dynamics. While assessment of underlying inflation is unchanged as "high" from July - downgraded from "strong" in June - "most indicators have started to ease" a more convincing statement than " some measures show signs of easing" (in July). Furthermore, President Lagarde said that monetary policy transmission is working faster than in previous instances "increasingly dampening demand", while international conditions are also seemingly off increasing support to the inflation outlook. These may explain why the GC (surprisingly) made explicit that they have reached peak rate level, making today an apparent dovish hike as taken initially by markets. We would not agree with their interpretation.
We do not think it was all that dovish. First, during the press conference, President Lagarde spent a lot of time explaining the importance of both "current interest rate level" and its duration, making also very plain that the door for further hike(s) remains open, data-dependent. Second, reaching its 2% inflation target "in a timely manner" seemingly played a crucial role in today's decision, with the addition in the statement "in order to reinforce progress" from previous decisions. That was probably felt necessary after the upward revision in headline inflation carried into next year. According to the updated ECB staff projections, headline inflation is falling back below target in the last quarter of 2025, seemingly too late for President Lagarde's comfort. Third, in line with our preview, the rest of the rate forward guidance was left unchanged: "future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary". She also emphasized data-dependency and time consistency of their judgement "based on current assessment".
In line with our baseline, we foresee no more changes to ECB's policy rates before the summer 2024 (June at the earliest), when cuts are likely to be envisaged. In the meantime, we think that policy discussion is going to shift to the ECB's balance sheet, and most likely on PEPP reinvestment policy - despite no change to the guidance, and matter reportedly not discussed at this meeting - (before outright APP sales would be considered). We think discussions will start soon, but decision may only come at the December meeting at the earliest. Dwindling growth is likely to complicate 2024 budget discussions. Noise may also come from the final steps to agree on the future fiscal rules.
Revised ECB staff forecasts came close to our expectations. Euro area GDP growth projections were revised down to 0.7% in 2023 (-0.2pp), 1.0% in 2024 (-0.5 pp) and 1.5% in 2025 (-0.1 pp). This remains optimistic compared with ours (0.5%/0.3% this year and next). The ECB is seemingly more positive on purchasing power gain boosting household's consumption through 2024 while probably not considering any meaningful constraints on the supply side by contrast with us.
On prices, headline inflation forecasts have been pushed up to 5.6% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 (both at +0.2pp) due to higher energy prices. We differ from the ECB for 2024 as we only have 2.7% next year. We have similar assumptions on oil prices, but we believe the difference comes from carbon taxes and removal of some energy measures through 2024.
Core inflation has been downgraded by 0.1pp in both 2024 and 2025 to 2.9% and 2.2%. It also remains above target even at the end of horizon at 2.1% y/y in Q4 2025. Downward revisions are a consequence of lower momentum on growth and compensation per employee from 2024 onwards (4.3% in 2024 (-0.2pp) and 3.8% in 2025 (-0.1 pp).
Financial markets have been quite volatile between ECB monetary policy statement and the press conference. Monetary policy decision triggered a quick bond rally with all maturities above 3 years losing approximately 5-7 basis points, but session remained choppy. Equity markets have seemingly interpreted Ms Lagarde press conference speech as a turning point in ECB's hawkish narrative and Eurostoxx 600 climbs by 1.4% at the time of writing. EURUSD is weakening (-0.5%) and is now at 1.066.
