Accsys Technologies - Strong EBITDA growth until FY30 expected

At its investor strategy day, Accsys set financial targets for the coming years, with a combined volume and revenue CAGR of 14% for FY25-30e for the plant in the Netherlands and the Accoya USA plant (60%/40% joint venture (JV)). Driven by increasing volumes, higher efficiency and operating leverage, Accsys targets adjusted group EBITDA to improve from €10.5m in FY25e (consensus) to €54m by FY30 (including its 60% share in the JV), exceeding our previous estimates. Accsys aims to bring down net debt to zero by FY30, which we think is achievable fuelled by increasing free cash flows. On higher long-term margins, our discounted cash flow indicates a value per share of 83p or €1.00 (up from €0.95 previously).

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