Topic: bet-at-home reported final FY24 figures above our estimates on the topline and on EBITDA before special items, while one-offs burdened the reported EBITDA. In detail:
Sales came in at € 52.3m (+13.3% yoy), above our estimates of € 50.2m (eNuW), driven by a substantial volume growth in the gaming segment (€ 51.4m vs € 38.4m in FY23 vs eNuW: € 46m) and an expansion of the margin in the betting segment (13% vs 12% in FY23 vs eNuW: 12.5%) and in the gaming segment (11.2% vs 10% in FY23 vs eNuW: 11.2%) resulting in a betting GGR of € 46.5m (+10% yoy) and Gaming GGR of € 5.8m (+51% yoy).
EBITDA of € -3.3m (vs € 0.8m in FY23) came in even below expectations (eNuW: € -2.0m), due to one-offs expenses for customer claims (€ 0.8m), revaluation of receivables against the bah Entertainment Ltd. (€ 2.4m) as well as provisions related to the value-added tax in Switzerland (€ 4.9m). Leaving one-offs aside, the operating business developed nicely: growing topline paired with stable OPEX resulted in significant scale effects visible in an EBITDA before special items that more than doubled to € 4.8m (vs € 2.4m in FY23).
After another year with an improving operating business, we are looking very optimistic into FY25e that should mark a turning point as 1) the liquidation of the Entertainment business is seen to take place and 2) the ECJ is expected to rule on customer claims in H2. While we consider the liquidation rather as a non-event, as the company "hedged" different scenarios, the ECJ decision could become a game-changer: With a likely ruling of the ECJ in favor of the betting providers, the current customer claims against bet-at-home and - even more importantly - the looming risks of new customer claims would be off the table, together with related lifted legal costs.
For the moment, we have not modeled that in, expecting further topline growth and € 55.7m sales in FY25e and a reported EBITDA € 2.5m. Management played it more conservative expecting € 46-54m sales and € 0-4m EBITDA before special items as no event such as UEFA EURO championship is taking place in FY25 and the betting fees in Austria should increase from 2% to 5%.
Still, as the operating business is developing nicely and all sources of risks are likely to vanish soon, we reiterate BUY with an unchanged (but conservative) PT of € 5.50 based on FCFY'25e.
ISIN: DE000A0DNAY5
