BVB released a strong Q3 prelims., showing sales growth of 52% yoy to € 149m (eNuW: € 134m) as well as an EBITDA of € 29.6m (eNuW: € 24.3m; prior year: € -1.8m), implying a strong 19.9% margin.
The strong improvements are largely explained by the increased number of games (Q3 24/25: 18 vs Q3 23/24: 13), resulting in almost a doubling of match operation sales (+90% to € 20.3m) and strongly increased sales from TV marketing (+69% to € 64.5m). While advertising showed comparably steady growth of 14% to € 40.6m, sales from merchandising (+81% to € 9.8m) and conference, catering and others (+59% to € 13.6m) also showed stellar growth driven by the favorable calendar due to the new UCL format (4 more games). Also, the departure of Donyell Malen allowed for increased transfer income (+110% to € 12.6m).
While this also drove personnel expenses (+22% to € 81m), as more games unlock more variable payments to players, BVB benefitted from operating leverage, visible in the disproportionate cost growth. Given stable D&A of € 23.8m, Q3 preliminary EBIT came in at € 5.8m.
Importantly, BVB is now also performing on the pitch. Since a 2-0 loss against direct competitor Leipzig in March, BVB managed to win 6 out of their last 7 Bundesliga matches. Thanks to this streak, BVB jumped from 11th to 5th position and reduced the gap to the crucial top-4 (UCL qualification) from 10 points to only 1. With only one game to go and direct competitors Freiburg (4th) and Frankfurt (3rd) facing each other, we regard BVB's chances as good to gain a top-4 finish, especially as the team is playing already relegated Kiel at home. Here is what needs to happen for BVB to reach that crucial position.
Option 1: If BVB vs Kiel ends in a draw, Frankfurt must beat Freiburg, and BVB qualifies for UCL.
Option 2: If BVB wins by a margin of 1 goal, they need either a Frankfurt win, a draw or a Freiburg win with a margin of 2+ goals.
Option 3: If BVB wins by a margin of 2+ goals, they are qualified, no matter what happens in Freiburg (only unlikely exception: BVB wins by 2 and Freiburg wins by 1 and scores 4 goals more than BVB)
We hence upgrade BVB's chances of reaching the UCL to 90% (old: 10%), explaining our raised estimates and reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 5.20 PT based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005493092
