Topic: Rosenbauer released solid Q1 figures with sales in line and EBIT above our estimates. The demand for firefighting vehicles is unbroken, supported by several structural trends leading to a strong order intake and a new record high in order backlog.
Q1 sales grew by 16.8% yoy to € 264m (eNuW: € 265m) thanks to the company's strong order backlog of € 2.28bn at the end of FY24, improved supply chains and an average price increase of 15% yoy per fire truck delivered in Q1. Sales in the vehicle's product segment increased by 25.5% yoy to € 198m and compensated for a weaker Preventive Fire Protection segment (-65% yoy to € 3.6m).
EBIT improved by € 8.7m yoy to € 9.0m (eNuW: € 7.9m) with a solid margin of 3.4% (+3.3pp yoy) for the seasonal softer Q1. The positive EBIT development was backed by a further stabilization of supply chains, but also noticeable price increases as well as operating leverage.
Unbroken strong demand. Q1 order intake stood at € 359m (-1% yoy), implying a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x and leading to a new record high in order backlog of € 2.34bn (+21% yoy).
Strong operating cashflow: Trade working capital decreased 8.2% yoy to € 465m despite a significant top-line increase, thanks to Rosenbauer's "offer-to-cash" WC efficiency program and restored supply chains. The trade working capital/revenue ratio decreased to 31.0% (vs. 38.8% in Q1'24) and is expected to fall below 30% during the year. Overall, operating cashflow rose to € -6.8m from € -58.4m in Q1'24.
Limited impact from US tariffs: As over 90% of the trucks delivered in the US are produced domestically, the impact from potential US tariffs should be limited in our view. Around € 80m (eNuW) of the order backlog is attributable to Cananda and produced in the US. However, at the time there are no tariffs on firetrucks imported from the US to Canada. The most likely impact should be from higher aluminum and steel prices in the US.
FY guidance reiterated. For FY25e, management expects sales of € 1.5bn and an EBIT margin of above 6%. The outlook looks plausible in our view (eNuW: Sales € 1.52bn, EBIT margin 6.2%), supported by a strong order backlog and tailwind from price increases as well as internal efficiency measures.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 55.00 PT based on DCF.
ISIN: AT0000922554
